MLB · 3 weeks ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 14)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 14)

There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Thursday’s baseball schedule!

Where to Watch Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, NY
Where to Watch: SNY, FDSNSO
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+106) | Total: 8.5 (-122/+100)
Moneyline: ATL +164 | NYM -196

Ahead of the weekend, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will close out their series from Queens. The projected starters in the NL East rubber match are righties Bryce Elder and Kodai Senga.

Notably, the Amazin’ Mets have been a powerhouse for over bettors this week. New York’s National League side has cashed the over in four consecutive contests entering Thursday. That is a streak worth riding.

Elder (5.15 FIP) has been hit hard in 2025. Through exactly 100 innings pitched, 19.1% of all fly balls allowed by Elder have resulted in home runs. He’s also surrendering a 45.9% Statcast hard-hit rate. From there, Atlanta’s bullpen shows a 4.01 ERA, which lands in the bottom half of the league.

Senga has been up and down this year behind a 1.24 WHIP. That would be the highest clip of his career if the season ended today, but to the contrary, Senga displays a career-best 22.5% strikeout rate right now.

The Braves have certainly underperformed as an offense in the current campaign, while the Mets boast a .733 team OPS (sixth in the National League). Additionally, the Mets’ offense has been ever better in home games this year, slashing .248/.328/.420 at Citi Field.

It will be a warm evening in New York City, so I’m bullish on over 8.5 total runs.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-122)

Where to Watch Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins

Ballpark: Target Field
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Where to Watch: FDSNDT, MNNT
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: DET -1.5 (-125) | Total: 7.5 (-102/-120)
Moneyline: DET -205 | MIN +172

Looking at another divisional bid, I’m targeting the AL Central for a series opener between the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Toeing the rubber, we’ll see LHP Tarik Skubal and RHP Bailey Ober.

Skubal (2.13 FIP) has been one of baseball’s top arms this season. He is the odds-on favorite to win the upcoming American League Cy Young award at all shops across America. More precisely, Skubal is punching out 11.58 batters per nine innings. He previously made one start against Minnesota in 2025, wherein he tossed seven innings of shutout baseball, allowing one hit.

Ober has been so-so in Year Five with the Twins. His 4.63 skill-interactive ERA is better than some, but it’s also Ober’s worst figure of his career in that category. He’ll look to bounce back against the Tigers on a windy night in the Twin Cities.

Detroit has a top-10 lineup, but the same cannot be said about Minnesota. The Twins’ offense has lacked power in 2025. Further, they have been quite poor against left-handed pitching, showing a .688 OPS versus southpaws.

I anticipate Skubal will go deep into the game. That gives me confidence to lean on under 7.5 runs in Minneapolis.