MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 3 Betting Picks (June 23)

There is no stopping us now. The MLB season is fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for today’s action, highlighting our top three picks in our Monday parlay!

Note: All odds and lines are courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change after the publication of this article.

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 3 Betting Picks

Best Bet: ATL-NYM Under 8.5 -105

Where to Watch Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

• Ballpark: Citi Field
• Location: Queens, NY
• Where to Watch: WPIX, FDSSO
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: ATL -1.5 | Total: 9
• Moneyline: ATL -135 | NYM +115

Losers of eight of their last nine, the New York Mets are giving up a concerning amount of ground in the NL East. Those concerns are amplified as they kick off a four-game set versus the visiting Atlanta Braves. New York’s pitchers need to figure things out, but we expect an improved performance on Monday night. 

Paul Blackburn takes the ball for the Mets. The right-hander has looked shaky of late, but he should start to see a sharp increase in his performance. Heading into tonight’s intra-divisional battle, Blackburn’s 6.92 ERA is nearly double his expected value of 3.53. In that regard, we should see a much more efficient performance at Citi Field, as actual metrics balance with expected. 

At the same time, Spencer Schwellenbach is among the more underappreciated pitchers in the National League. The young righty ranks in the upper echelon of several notable advanced metric categories, punctuated by his 34.5% chase rate (94th percentile) and 84th percentile ranking in pitching run value. 

This NL East battle should end up as one of the premier pitchers’ duels of the night. We’re taking a principled stand on the under. 

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Best Bet: Yankees -125

Where to Watch New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds

• Ballpark: Great American Ballpark
• Location: Cincinnati, OH
• Where to Watch: FDSOH, YES
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: NYY -1.5 | Total: 10
• Moneyline: NYY -125 | CIN +105

Fresh off a series win, the New York Yankees will be looking to make it four wins in their last five when they take on the Cincinnati Reds in an interleague affair. The Yankees are short favorites, but we think their chances of winning vastly exceed the implied probability of the betting price. 

Offensively, few teams can hang with the Yankees, and the Reds aren’t one of those clubs. They lead the American League in virtually every offensive category, including runs, on-base, and slugging percentages. 

Moreover, Nick Lodolo doesn’t possess the arsenal to keep the Yankees at bay. The Reds’ probable starter ranks in the bottom half of the majors in several prominent categories, such as expected ERA, hard-hit rate, and strikeout percentage. More concerningly, he is operating above his expected levels, pointing toward inevitable regression.

New York is one of the premier teams in the Bigs. Lodolo will serve them up faster than Katz’s Deli, and the Yankees are here to feast.

Best Bet: WAS-NYM Under 7.5 +100

Where to Watch Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres

• Ballpark: PETCO Park
• Location: San Diego, CA
• Where to Watch: SDPA, MASN2
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Spread: SDP -1.5 | Total: 8.5
• Moneyline: SDP -180 | WAS +150

The Washington Nationals continue their West Coast trip with a clash versus the San Diego Padres. The Nats’ offense came to life versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, and a repeat performance is on tap in the series opener at PETCO Park. 

Washington dazzled at Chavez Ravine. While their pitching let them down, the Nationals put up 19 runs over their three-game set. Those efforts drove their OPS to .824 over the past week, thanks to 13 home runs and 23 extra-base hits. 

Stephen Kolek will do his part to ensure those benchmarks stay elevated. The Padres’ righty gives up a concerning amount of hard contact, ranking in the third percentile in average exit velocity and fourth percentile in hard-hit rate. Predictably, that puts his 3.59 ERA significantly ahead of his expected mark of 4.52.

Regression is looming for Kolek, and the Nats are here for it. Expect them to sustain their offensive production and take the series opener in San Diego. 

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MLB Best Bets Tuesday’s Top Picks:

• Athletics +125
• Padres -110
• WAS-NYM Under 7.5 +100

We’ve locked and loaded our three favorite picks for tonight. We’re taking the Nationals and Yankees outright, with the under between the Braves and Mets.

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