MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (July 28)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Monday’s baseball slate!

Where to Watch Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Ballpark: American Family Field
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Where to Watch: MARQ, FDSNWI
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+152) | Total: 8 (-106/-114)
Moneyline: CHC -112 | MIL -104

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

To start the week, there is a heavyweight divisional matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs. Notably, just 90 miles separate these two Midwestern franchises, but as of Monday, they are separated by zero games in the standings, tied atop the NL Central at 62-43.

In five head-to-head meetings this season, Chicago has won three times. However, the Cubs have outscored Milwaukee in those games, 28-17.

What makes tonight’s bid particularly special is that we’re in line for a fierce pitcher’s duel between Jacob Misiorowski and Matthew Boyd. Misiorowski has been this year’s rookie phenom on the mound, showcasing a live arm and a 35.7% strikeout clip over 29.1 innings pitched. Across the way, Boyd has been as good as it gets in the National League. The Cubbies have won each of his past five starts; throughout that span, Boyd has surrendered just two earned runs.

Despite two very talented lineups on hand, I see the hurlers dictating the tempo of Monday’s game at the pitcher-friendly American Family Field (96 Park Factor score/27th in MLB, per Baseball Savant). Banking on Misiorowski’s first of many starts against Chicago to be memorable, give me under eight total runs.

Best Bet: Under 8 (-114)

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Where to Watch New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Ballpark: Petco Park
Location: San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: SNY, SDPA, MLBN
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SD -1.5 (+155) | Total: 8 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: NYM +112 | SD -132

The Amazin’ New York Mets have snapped off seven consecutive wins to reclaim the NL East’s top spot. After sweeping a series in Northern California, New York is headed south for three games against the San Diego Padres. Dylan Cease and Frankie Montas Jr. are the projected starters for Monday in San Diego’s Gaslamp Quarter.

Montas has built momentum in 2025, posting a 3.86 SIERA since debuting for the Mets last month. Additionally, New York has been victorious in each of his past three outings. Meanwhile, Cease — showing a 3-10 record, 4.59 ERA, and 40.6% hard-hit rate — has been up and down this season, and is rumored to be on the trading block again.

Today’s moneyline price (+112 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) on the Mets warrants genuine consideration. New York’s NL side is playing solid baseball at this juncture, displaying a .736 team OPS. Conversely, the Padres’ offense has been inconsistent behind a .694 OPS.

With an underdog listing, I am encouraged to play the Mets with a right-handed starter opposing them. To this point, the Amazins are collectively slashing .249/.328/.433 versus RHP.