MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 4)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 4)

We’re rolling into tonight’s MLB slate with two plus-money spots that jump off the board, starting in Arlington, where Patrick Corbin looks to keep his steady run going for the Rangers against a sputtering Yankees lineup. Corbin’s resurgence has been a quiet but valuable piece for Texas, and his home splits give him an edge in this matchup. Then we shift to Queens, where Sean Manaea’s return to form sets up well against the Guardians’ struggling bats.

With both starters in favorable spots and value on the board, we’re locking in these best bets to close out the night with a tidy profit.

Where to Watch Yankees vs Rangers

Ballpark: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: RSN, YES
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+125) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: NYY -142 | TEX +120

Bet 1: Rangers Moneyline vs Yankees +120

Patrick Corbin’s bounce-back season has been one of the more under-the-radar bright spots for the Texas Rangers in 2025. The veteran southpaw enters today’s clash with the New York Yankees sporting a 3.78 ERA — his best since his 2019 All-Star campaign, when he posted a 3.25. He’ll look to keep that momentum rolling against a Yankees squad that’s been as streaky as any team in baseball.

Over his last six starts, Corbin has been a model of consistency — surrendering three runs or fewer each time, piling up 28.1 innings, grabbing two wins, and striking out 28 batters. He’s already seen New York once this year and handled himself well, tossing five innings of three-run ball with three strikeouts back in late May at Yankee Stadium. That outing came in the middle of an impressive run for the former Washington National, when he went 12 straight games allowing three earned runs or less.

Back in Arlington, Corbin could be even stronger tonight. Corbin has enjoyed the home Texas BBQ cooking with his splits leaning to a pronounced advantage at Globe Life. The former Arizona Diamondback has a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home compared to a 4.33 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road. While Corbin rarely goes more than five or six, he’s in good hands with a bullpen that ranks fourth among all team relievers in ERA (3.35) and WHIP (1.22).

While the Yankees’ offense has been one of the best in baseball over the course of the season, they’ve really stumbled lately. New York sits 21st in OPS over the past 15 days (.695) and fourth from the bottom with a .220 batting average over that span. The pedestrian numbers put them in the middle of the pack in runs scored since mid-July, and they’ve been saved by the long ball with the third most home runs (24) over that stretch.

On the bats’ side, there hasn’t been the kind of consistent firepower Texas has grown accustomed to. The Rangers sit in the bottom third of the league in total runs, ranking 21st with just 465 scored on the season. Injuries to key bats, such as Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Joc Pederson, have impacted their overall production. At the same time, slow starts from Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia have not helped either. Still, there’s a sense this group has more in the tank as the stretch run looms, and they’ve shown signs. Texas has scored the 10th most runs since mid-July (4.7/game), and may have turned a corner.

While the bats have been inconsistent, the Rangers’ elite pitching has been anything but — leading all of MLB in team ERA (3.26), WHIP (1.17), and opponents’ batting average (.226). Wth the offense bound to trend upward and a playoff berth within striking distance (just 2.0 games out of the wild card), every game from here on out matters.

At plus-money, I love the value we are getting on the resurgent Patrick Corbin. He’ll keep his string of solid starts going, while the bullpen and offense will pick him up for a win tonight in Arlington.

NYY vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: SNY, CLEG
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +150 | NYM -178

Bet 2: Mets Runline vs Guardians +118

From one New York team to another and one plus-money price tag to another, we keep it going with the post-deadline bolstered New York Mets facing an anemic Cleveland Guardians offense.

The Mets’ offense, on the other hand, has been stellar all season, and with the not-so-intimidating Slade Cecconi (1.22 WHIP, 4.99 xERA, .276 xBA) on the mound, they should continue to do damage. Featuring Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor leading the charge, New York brings one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball when in a groove. The trade for deadline acquisition, Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles, should also help, adding a guy with elite speed and some pop. Diving deeper into the offense, the Mets’ advanced metrics tell the story.

New York ranks fourth in all of baseball in expected slugging (.455) and fourth with an expected weighted on-base average of .344, showing just how consistently they’re producing quality swings. When they connect, it hurts — they’re fifth in xwOBA on contact (.399), third in barrel rate (10.3%), third in hard-hit rate (45.0%), and third in average exit velocity at 90.4 MPH.

It’s not just surface-level production, either. New York sits just outside the top 10 in the majors in OPS (.728), slugging percentage (.408), and OBP (.320). The difference in expected and actual stat rankings suggests progression could be on the horizon. So does New York’s .260 xBA compared to its .241 batting average, which puts them 22nd in baseball.

On the other side, Cleveland’s offense can’t be trusted to perform against anyone right now, or all season. The Guardians have by far the worst overall xBA (.232), xSLG (.379), xwOBA (.300), and xwOBACON (.345) in baseball. Cleveland’s contact advanced metrics are equally unimpressive, ranking last in hard-hit rate (36.1%) and second-to-last in barrel rate (6.9%), as well as average exit velocity (88.4 mph). They have also gotten nothing going against lefties. The Guardians are hitting .227 against LHP (24th in MLB) to go along with a 26th ranking in OPS at .614. This is music to tonight’s Mets starter’s ears.

Southpaw Sean Manaea brings a wealth of experience and has been stellar since returning to the rotation after a left elbow injury cost him the first three and a half months of the season. Manaea has allowed just one earned run in each of his first four starts of 2025 and ramped up his pitch count in each start. The former Athletic went five strong, throwing a season-high 86 pitches (64 strikes), allowing just one run and three hits against the San Diego Padres in his previous start last Tuesday.

Losers of five of their past six, I like Manaea to be the slide stopper tonight, holding Cleveland’s bats at bay and getting a multiple-run victory.

CLE vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates