MLB · 3 weeks ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 18)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 18)

There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Monday’s baseball schedule!

Where to Watch St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins

Ballpark: loanDepot Park
Location: Miami, FL
Where to Watch: FDSNMW, FDSNFL
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: MIA -1.5 (+160) | Total: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Moneyline: STL +114 | MIA -134

The National League catalog is quite interesting today, but a less-than-noteworthy meeting between the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins has attracted my attention. Lefty Matthew Liberatore and righty Eury Perez are the projected starters in the series opener.

Perez has been strong in 2025 behind a 3.78 FIP over a dozen starts. At the moment, he is walking just 8.4% of all hitters faced. Across the way, Liberatore has also been solid, displaying a 4.28 xFIP.

St. Louis has lost five consecutive contests upon arriving in South Florida. The Cardinals also feature a total run differential of -30, while showing a 26-34 record on the road. With that, I like Miami on the run line.

The Marlins have compiled a 73-51 (58.9%) run-line record in 2025, which is the best overall mark in baseball. With the Cards in their current rut (they’ve allowed four or more runs in each of the past four days), I believe they are vulnerable right now. Additionally, Miami has already covered in two of the three previous games against St. Louis this year.

Best Bet: Marlins -1.5 (+160)

Where to Watch San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Ballpark: Petco Park
Location: San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: SDPA, NBCSBA
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SD -1.5 (+155) | Total: 8 (+106/-130)
Moneyline: SF +120 | SD -142

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants will meet for their second head-to-head series in less than a week, but this time, Petco Park will be the backdrop. On the mound, lefties Robbie Ray and Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber.

This NL West bid from San Diego’s Gaslamp Quarter should be a low-scoring affair. Ray has produced a quality campaign for San Francisco. He’s presently punching out 9.24 batters per nine innings while boasting a 2.98 ERA. Meanwhile, Cortes has allowed only three runs in two starts for the Friars this season.

Very notably, the Giants have struggled all year when facing left-handed pitching. As of now, San Francisco is slashing .211/.275/.332 over 1,202 plate appearances in the split.

Given San Diego’s dominant bullpen (2.97 ERA) behind Cortes, this contest has a fair shot to stay under eight combined runs. Additionally, the under has cashed in 56.7% of the Padres’ games in 2025 (and 52.5% for the Giants). I am trusting in Monday’s hurlers to manage the respective lineups inside of a pitcher’s ballpark (98 Park Factor score, per Baseball Savant).