MLB · 2 weeks ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Yankees, Mets, Marlins Picks & Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Yankees, Mets, Marlins Picks & Best Bets Today

Wednesday’s MLB slate sets up perfectly for a three-leg parlay anchored by the Marlins, Mets, and Yankees. Miami looks to salvage its series against St. Louis behind Sandy Alcantara and a quietly improving offense. In Washington, the Mets line up Kodai Senga against a rookie arm showing clear regression signs, with New York’s elite lineup primed to cash in. And in Tampa, the Yankees’ relentless bats and Aaron Judge’s historic campaign look set to punish Drew Rasmussen’s shaky underlying numbers.

This parlay delivers strong value by riding teams with momentum, advanced metrics, and superior matchups on their side.

Let’s keep the good times rolling.

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Where to Watch Cardinals vs Marlins

Ballpark: LoanDepot Park
Location: Miami, Florida
Where to Watch: FDSFL, FDSMW
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: MIA -1.5 (+168) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: STL +102 | MIA -120

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Marlins Moneyline -120

After dropping the first two contests of this three-game set, the Miami Marlins look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night.

The Marlins’ offense has finally shown some life after a sluggish first half, climbing into the middle of the pack since the break. Over the past 30 days, Miami ranks 15th in runs scored, averaging close to 4.5 per game across a 27-game stretch. The improvements show up across the board, with their OPS, slugging, batting average, and on-base percentage all sitting around league average during that run.

For the season, the Fish are hitting .251 as a team, good enough for a top-10 mark. Their expected batting average tells an even more encouraging story—Miami’s .260 xBA ranks eighth in MLB, suggesting there’s still room for more offensive upside in the second half. I expect them to be able to get to a very subpar pitcher like Andre Pallante (5.04 ERA, 1.38 WHIP).

Not trading Sandy Alcantara at the deadline is one of the main reasons I’m confident the Marlins will get it done tonight. While Alcantara has been very up and down, he has still flashed that Cy Young form that won him the hardware a few years ago. Case in point, his last start in very hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where he limited the Boston Red Sox to just two hits and one earned run, while striking out seven through six strong innings. Before a pair of rough outings to start August, the Marlins’ hurlers put up 12 innings of scoreless ball across two starts. His xERA (5.01) is nearly a run and a half lower than his actual ERA (6.31), so I like further progression against a weak Cardinals offense.

St. Louis sits in the bottom 10 of baseball with an expected slugging percentage of just .409 to go along with a mediocre xwOBA (.320) and MLB’s sixth-lowest xwOBACON (.366). The Cards’ contact metrics aren’t much better. They sit in the bottom 10 of the league with a barrel rate of 7.8% to go along with a middling hard hit rate (41%) and average exit velocity (89.5 MPH).

I like the Marlins to salvage the final game of this series and come up with the win at home.

STL vs MIA Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Mets vs Nationals

Ballpark: Washington, DC
Location: Nationals Park
Where to Watch: SNY, MASN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (-108) | Total: 9
Moneyline: NYM -172 WSH +144

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Mets Runline -108

The New York Mets look to extend their win streak to four games, a night after taking the series opener against the Washington Nationals in emphatic fashion, with an 8-1 victory.

The Nationals send rookie Brad Lord to the mound, and while his surface stats look solid (3-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), the underlying numbers scream regression. His expected ERA sits a full run higher at 4.26, and opponents’ expected batting average of .276 is 33 points above what hitters have actually produced. With just 11 career starts and 91 big-league innings under his belt, Lord is still learning on the fly—hardly an ideal spot against one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups.

On the other side, the Mets turn to Kodai Senga, who has been nothing short of a rock in their rotation. The right-hander owns a 7-4 record with a 2.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and has allowed only 75 hits in 99.2 innings. His strikeout-to-hit ratio (95 K to 75 H) pops off the page, and he’s given up just 10 home runs all season. That level of consistency sets the tone early and keeps opposing offenses in check.

Senga has also kept the Nationals in check twice already this season. The Japanese hurler has gone 11.2 innings over two starts against Washington, holding them to just two earned runs and seven hits in a win and no-decision. Senga struck out five in each start and clearly handled the Nats’ bats.

The Mets’ bats should back him up, too. This lineup—featuring Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto—ranks fourth in MLB in expected slugging (.458), fourth in xwOBACON (.402), and second in expected wOBA (.345). The quality-of-contact metrics prove they’re not just dangerous, but consistently elite. Their contact metrics jump off the page as well. New York ranks third in barrel rate (10.3%), second in hard-hit rate (45.3%), and third in average exit velocity (90.5 mph).

I like Senga holding the Nationals bats at bay and New York’s potent offense getting to Brad Lord. A multiple-run Mets win seems very much in the cards tonight.

NYM vs WSH Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Yankees vs Rays

Ballpark: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Location: Tampa, Florida
Where to Watch: FDSSUN, YES
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+164) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: NYY +100 TB -118

Leg 3: Yankees Moneyline +100

I like the New York Yankees to continue their dominance over the Tampa Bay Rays, as they aim for a fifth straight win against TB, improve to 9-4 on the season, and secure their second consecutive win in this series following a dominant 13-3 victory last night.

The Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen to stop the Bronx bleeding, who looks strong on paper with a 10-5 record and a 2.60 ERA. But dig deeper, and the cracks start to show. His expected ERA is nearly a run higher at 3.44, and opponents’ expected batting average of .249 is 37 points above their actual .212 mark against him. That kind of gap usually signals looming regression, especially against an offense that punishes mistakes.

Opposite him is Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler, making just his seventh career start. The 24-year-old has held his own with a 3.94 ERA, and his expected batting average allowed (.250) is actually 20 points lower than the real number—showing he may have been a bit unlucky. More importantly, his stuff is electric. Schlittler’s fastball averages 97.9 mph, ranking in the top five percent of the league in velocity. That kind of raw power plays, and the Yankees have every reason to believe his best work is still ahead.

Backing him up is a New York lineup that’s been an analytics darling all season. The Yankees lead MLB by 11 points in expected slugging (.472), top the expected wOBA on contact charts (.418), while also ranking first in expected wOBA (.348). They’re also the hardest-hitting team in the league by advanced metrics: first in hard-hit rate (45.9%), barrel rate (11.6%), and average exit velocity (90.7 mph). That all translates to the third-most runs scored in baseball (5.2/game).

And then there’s Aaron Judge, who is flat-out redefining offensive dominance. He leads the majors with a .333 batting average, second in the AL with 40 home runs, and third in the Junior Circuit with 92 RBI. As he eyes a triple crown, his advanced numbers are even scarier. Judge owns MLB’s top xwOBA (.458) and xSLG (.713), leading second-place Ohtani by a ridiculous 61 points. The Yankees slugger also ranks second in adjusted exit velocity (98.3 mph) and leads all hitters with a batting run value of 54. Add in a ridiculous MLB-best 25.0% barrel rate, 56.5% & hard hit rate, and 95.3 mph average exit velocity, and it’s no wonder pitchers can’t find answers. I expect only baffled questions on Wednesday night.

The fact that we are getting plus-money taking a team that has tuned up Tampa this season seems like a gift, one I’m unwrapping immediately to bring home our three-game parlay.

NYY vs TB Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates