MLB · 1 month ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Red Sox, Mariners, and Brewers Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Red Sox, Mariners, and Brewers Best Bets Today

We’re locking in a three-leg MLB parlay on Wednesday night with a heavy dose of momentum, motivation, and matchup value. The Red Sox are primed to sweep a punchless Royals team at a discount, Milwaukee gets a plus-money spot against a depleted Braves lineup, and Seattle has both the bats and the arms to bury the White Sox on the runline. Each of these teams has something to play for—Boston and Seattle chasing playoff position, and Milwaukee looking to keep their NL-best pace.

When urgency meets favorable splits, we bet on the side that’s hungry—and the other side swinging a wet newspaper.

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Where to Watch Royals vs Red Sox

Ballpark: Fenway Park
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
Where to Watch: NESN, FDSKC
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: BOS -1.5 (+125) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: KC +118 | BOS -138

Leg 1: Red Sox Moneyline -138

Fresh off a 6-2 win last night, where the Kansas City Royals team under hit for us, we are taking the Boston Red Sox to wrap up the sweep of this three-game set tonight. We are getting a great price on Boston a day after being -245 favorites with Garrett Crochet on the mound last night. And Oh, ya, KC still can’t hit.

Let’s not sugarcoat it—Kansas City’s offense has been a bottom-barrel liability, and that’s putting it politely. The Royals are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, good (or bad) for second-worst in the league. Their team OPS sits at an uninspiring .687, ranking 25th across MLB, while their .386 slugging percentage (24th) and 99 total home runs (28th) tell a clear story: this lineup doesn’t scare anyone.

And if you’re hoping the underlying metrics show some hidden upside? They don’t.

KC ranks sixth-worst in xwOBACON (.364), while their expected wOBA (.320) and xSLG (.419) both hover near the bottom 10. Add in a middling 39.6% hard-hit rate (eighth-worst in the league) and a barrel rate of just 7.5% (25th overall), and you’ve got a team that simply isn’t squaring up the baseball. When a cold offense meets a surging Boston team, the edge leans heavily toward the Sox.

Boston’s offense has been solid all season, even more so after Alex Bregman returned in mid-July following a seven-week layoff. Since Bregman’s return nearly a month ago, the Red Sox have scored the ninth-most runs in baseball, averaging over five per game. For his part, the former hit .292 in July and has three home runs and 10 RBI in 18 games since making his way back to the lineup.

On the season, the Red Sox sit top 10 in xSLG (.432), xwOBA (.329), and xwOBACON (.393), flexing their power touch in and out of Fenway. They are also sixth with a 10.0% barrel rate, second with a 45.7% hard hit rate, and first with the highest average exit velocity in baseball at 90.7 MPH. About Fenway, the Sox are the top-scoring home team in the American League this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Boston’s other home splits are nearly as impressive, sitting third in MLB in OPS (.789), fifth in slugging (.451), and third in batting average (.266).

KC vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Brewers vs Braves

Ballpark: Truist Park
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: FS1, FDSSO, FDSWI
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: ATL -1.5 (+150) | Total: 8
Moneyline: MIL +116 | ATL -136

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Brewers Moneyline +116

Getting plus money on the best team in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers facing a lifeless and banged up Atlanta Braves squad seems like a gift I will happily unwrap.

Atlanta might have the name recognition, but right now this team is running on fumes—and bettors should take notice. The Braves have dropped seven of their last ten and four straight at home and look as disjointed as ever. With the best record in baseball, it’s Milwaukee that comes into this one with momentum and motivatation to keep on pushing.

Injuries have gutted Atlanta’s firepower. Ronald Acuna just hit the IL with a calf strain, barely a week after Austin Riley returned to the lineup and gone back on the injured list. But let’s be real: even when mostly healthy, this offense hasn’t produced like we’re used to seeing. Over the last two weeks, the Braves are hitting just .226 (22nd in MLB) with a pedestrian .702 OPS and just four runs per game—nothing special in today’s league-wide run environment.

Zoom out, and the struggles have been there all season. Atlanta ranks 21st in batting average (.241) with expected metrics like xBA (.250) and xSLG sitting near the bottom third of the league. This isn’t a case of bad luck—it’s just underperformance. They’re striking out 8.7 times per game on the year (11th-most in MLB), and that number’s ticked up to nine per game over the last month, the seventh-highest mark in baseball. Even plate discipline hasn’t saved them—both their chase rate (27.8%) and whiff rate (24.7%) land right around the middle of the pack.

The Brewers, meanwhile, are built to take advantage. With a deep bullpen, a stingy rotation, and an offense that’s found its stride, Milwaukee is catching Atlanta at the perfect time.

Jose Quintanta has been very solid for the Brew Crew. The former Chicago Cub sports a nice and tidy 3.50 ERA and has allowed three runs or less in four of his past five starts. He’s also stuck around long enough for a decision in his past seven starts and continues to be an invaluale contributror to this Milwaukee staff.

This Brewers staff ranks top ten in opponents xBA (.243), xSLG (.403) and xwOBACON (.371). Their starters have also collectiveloy held opposing batters to a .221 batting average, second best in baseball

I like Milwaukee to hold down Atlanta’s subpar offense and keep rolliing wiht another win tonight.

MIL vs ATL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch White Sox vs Mariners

Ballpark: T-Mobile Park
Location: Seattle, Washington
Where to Watch: MLB Network, ROOT Sports NW, CHSN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (-122) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: CWS +215 | SEA -260

Leg 3: Mariners Runline -122

I don’t love paying minus money on run lines for the Seattle Mariners or any team, and it’s a bit rare but the lousiness of this Chicago White Sox team is also quite rare.

The Pale Hose offense has been paler than the ghostiest of ghosts, just historically awful—from start to finish. They rank dead last in batting average at .229, and they’ve pushed through just 3.9 runs per game, placing 26th in MLB run scoring. Their .299 OBP (29th in the league) and a dismal .368 slugging percentage (29th) drag their overall OPS down to a paltry .667—again near the bottom at 29th. They’re also humming a sorry tune in power—just 107 home runs total, ranking 25th in all of baseball. They will be golfing very early this season.

The M’s on the other hand, plan on shelving their clubs until next Spring. Seattle is locked in on a postseason push—and the front office just sent a clear message: they’re going for it. Sitting in the AL’s final Wild Card spot and just three games back of the Houston Astros for the division lead, Seattle was aggressive ahead of last week’s deadline, swinging deals for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez from the Arizona Diamondbacks to add some much-needed juice to the lineup.

On the mound, Seattle has the right guy to hold Chicago’s anemic offensre nearly off the board to help secure our two-plus run win. George Kirby is starting to look like the version that helped carry this rotation last year. Since returning from early-season injury issues, Kirby has notched five wins in his last six starts and is riding back-to-back victories. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven outings and has blanked opponents entirely twice in that span. He’s keeping traffic to a minimum and giving this team a real chance to separate.

Yes, the Mariners have hit a cold patch at the plate lately (.213 batting average over the last 15 days), but this offense is nearly top 10 in runs scored on the year and ranks 10th in OBP (.320) with a .731 OPS that is also in the top 10. With the arrivals of Naylor and Suárez, this is a deeper, more dangerous lineup than the one that opened the season. And with Suarez hitting his first home run since being reacquired by Seattle in last night’s series opening win over the Sox, he may just be settling in and ready to go on a tear.

Facing a White Sox team that’s been bottom-tier in almost every metric, the Mariners should be in prime position to continue rolling—and cover the runline while they’re at it.

CWS vs SEA Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates