MLB · 1 week ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Phillies, Mets, White Sox Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Phillies, Mets, White Sox Picks and Best Bets Today

Tonight’s MLB slate sets the stage for a sharp three-leg parlay with value across the board. The Phillies deploy Aaron Nola for a critical start against a Braves team going nowhere, while Philadelphia’s own lineup is humming with power and depth. Over in Queens, the Mets’ offense is tearing through opponents, led by Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor — a group crushing advanced metrics and putting up crooked numbers nightly. And in Chicago, the White Sox look to stay hot at home, riding Davis Martin’s steady arm against a Yankees squad showing cracks.

After a rough showing last night, let’s get back on track and cash this evening.

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Where to Watch Braves vs Phillies

Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: MLB Network, NBCS-PH, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+104) | Total: 9.5
Moneyline: ATL +158 | PHI -188

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Phillies Runline +104

The Philadelphia Phillies had to wait three months to get their long-time ace back, but it looks like he returned from his ankle and rib issues just in time for the stretch toward the playoffs. Aaron Nola went down in mid-May, but he’s back now, ready to take the hill for his third start since returning, against an Atlanta Braves team he knows all too well.

Spending his entire 10-year career with the Phillies, Nola has faced Atlanta more than any other team in his career. The former All-Star has 37 career starts against the Braves, to go along with 16 wins, a 3.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 228 strikeouts in 228.1 innings. His last outing against ATL came last September when he spun six innings of four-hit ball, allowing just two runs, while striking out nine. Unlike in 2024, this Braves bunch features a weaker offense and is nowhere near playoff contention.

Atlanta’s offense has been struggling to find consistency without key anchors like Austin Riley (out for the season) and the oft-absent Ronald Acuña Jr. Over the past month, the Braves have managed just a .411 slugging percentage, paired with a .739 OPS that leaves them floating around league-average production. It’s part of a larger season-long pattern: their .251 expected batting average also sits around the middle of the league and falls well short of the bar this lineup has set in recent seasons. Their opponent’s offense is anything but mediocre.

This group blends speed and precision from Trea Turner with the thunderous power of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. As a team, Philadelphia ranks third with a .256 batting average, while sitting ninth in runs scored (4.7 per game) and eighth in OPS (.746). The underlying data points to even more upside: their .264 expected batting average is third, and their .445 expected slugging percentage is sixth, both of which outpace their actual production. Add in a .338 expected wOBA, good for sixth in MLB, and the numbers suggest this offense is only scratching the surface.

Facing a subpar pitcher in Cal Quantrill, with his 5.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and just one quality start on the season, I expect the Phillies to rake tonight.

ATL vs PHI Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Marlins vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: MLB Network, SNY, FDSFL
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (-128) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: MIA +205 | NYM -250

Leg 2: Mets Over 4.5 Runs -154

The New York Mets’ bats are rolling, and it goes well beyond name recognition. With Pete Alonso’s power, Juan Soto’s patience, Brandon Nimmo’s table-setting, and Francisco Lindor’s all-around impact, this lineup attacks from every angle. It’s a balanced mix of discipline and thunder that forces pitchers into constant pressure situations.

The analytics back up what’s happening on the field. New York ranks second in expected slugging percentage (.461) and leads the NL in expected weighted on-base average (.348), proof they’re producing quality swings night after night. The damage when they connect is undeniable — third in xwOBA on contact (.403), third in barrel rate (10.4%), second in hard-hit rate (45.7%), and second in average exit velocity (90.6 MPH). These are the metrics of an offense that doesn’t just create scoring chances, but punishes pitching staffs.

That efficiency is showing in the results. The Mets sit sixth in OPS (.751) and inside the top ten in runs scored (4.5 per game), doing damage against frontline aces and back-end arms alike. There are no shortcuts against this group — every at-bat is a grind, and mistakes rarely survive.

New York comes in on a five-game home winning streak after just sweeping the Phillies. The Mets’ handling of Philadelphia has cut their deficit for the NL East crown to just four games. Lindor and company were raking against their division rivals, putting up 25 runs in the three-game set, scoring at least six in each contest. It’s clear this side is motivated, hitting .322 in their past 10 games, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.2 runs per game.

Facing a Miami Marlins rookie pitcher with just 39 innings under his Major League belt just ups the Mets’ bats’ chances for another explosion. Adam Mazur has made just one MLB appearance this season, a loss against the Phillies after giving up four in 4.2 innings. The 24-year-old gets the call from the minors for his first taste of big league action since June.

I expect this veteran group of hitters to take advantage of a wide-eyed rookie and score plenty tonight.

MIA vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Yankees vs White Sox

Ballpark: Rate Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Where to Watch: CHSN and YES
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (-126) | Total: 9
Moneyline: NYY -190 | CWS +160

Leg 3: White Sox Moneyline +160

The Chicago White Sox have been a much better team in the second half and aren’t such an easy out anymore, especially at home. I expect the New York Yankees to find that out the hard way tonight.

Chicago boasts a respectable, if not spectacular, record of 16-20 since the All-Star break and has routinely beaten teams that are significantly better. Since mid-June, Chicago has claimed victories over top contenders such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago Cubs. While it may not seem like much, it’s definitely eye-opening for a team 37 games under .500 on the season.

Like his team, Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has also been much better in the second half. Martin has three wins in his past five outings and has gone at least five innings in 12 straight starts. The 28-year-old righty has given up three earned runs or less in five of six starts since the All-Star break, lowering his season ERA to 3.93. He’ll undoubtedly have his work cut out for him against an elite offense like the Yankees, but Martin has shown himself to be up to the task, especially recently.

On the other side of the mound, Yankees starter Will Warren is a pitcher who can be hit and hit hard. Warren’s 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 58 walks in 131 innings indicate that this young arm has control issues and struggles to limit baserunners. His .249 opponents’ batting average is not elite, and even worse is his .251 xBA, suggesting he may get hit even worse. This Sox will take it.

While Chicago’s offense is far from a juggernaut, they have been firing on all cylinders lately. The Pale Hose sit with the sixth-best batting average (.264) in baseball over the past month to go along with a top 10 OPS of .755 over that span. Their more recent stretch is even more impressive, hitting .295 over the past 10 games, while almost going .500. Chicago has also scored the sixth-most runs in baseball over the past week, putting up 5.7 per game across the small sample size.

Against a Yankees team that is just .500 on the road and that has had issues in the second half, at +160, Chicago is the sly play tonight.

NYY vs CWS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates