MLB · 1 week ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Nationals, Mets, Marlins Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Nationals, Mets, Marlins Picks and Best Bets Today

When the East is in the house, oh my God! We’ve got full East Division flavor in tonight’s MLB parlay, with five teams coming from the NL East, and one from the AL East. The Marlins look to ride Sandy Alcantara’s recent form as they continue their set with Atlanta, while the Nationals bring their ace to the Bronx against a slumping Yankees lineup. To cap it off, the Mets’ red-hot offense gets another crack at the Phillies in Queens.

Each matchup offers its own angle — progression from a Cy Young winner, a live dog covering against a struggling lineup, and a powerhouse offense that just keeps mashing.

After cashing two of three legs in our past two parlays, we are fully due for a winner, winner, chicken dinner tonight.

Where to Watch Braves vs Marlins

Ballpark: LoanDepot Park
Location: Miami, Florida
Where to Watch: FDSFL, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: ATL -1.5 (+130) | Total: 8
Moneyline: ATL -130 | MIA +110

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Marlins Moneyline +110

In our first of two all-NL East matchups, the Miami Marlins continue their three-game set with the Atlanta Braves after taking last night’s opener, 2-1.

The Marlins have finally woken up at the plate after slogging through the first half. Since the All-Star break, they’ve climbed back toward league average offensively, ranking 15th in runs scored over the past 30 days at nearly 4.5 per game across a 27-game stretch. OPS, slugging, average, and on-base all sit right in the middle of the pack during that span — not elite, but steady enough to support a frontline starter like Sandy Alcantara.

The decision not to deal Alcantara at the deadline looks even smarter now. While his 2025 campaign has been uneven, the flashes of his Cy Young form are still there — especially in his last two outings. Less than two weeks ago in Fenway Park, he silenced a dangerous Boston Red Sox lineup, giving up just two hits and one earned run over six innings with seven strikeouts. He followed that up by carving through the St. Louis Cardinals, striking out nine while surrendering only one run across seven innings in a win. Before that rough patch to open August, Alcantara stacked up 12 consecutive scoreless frames over two starts.

The advanced numbers suggest that more positive regression is on the way. His xERA (4.95) sits more than a run lower than his actual ERA (6.04), indicating that his raw stuff has been better than his surface statistics suggest. He’s already beaten the Braves once this year, tossing a six-inning quality start back in June.

On the other side, rookie Hurston Waldrep has been sensational early — maybe too sensational. The 23-year-old righty sports a 0.73 ERA through his first four games (three starts) with opponents hitting just .159 against him. However, the expected data points toward some course correction: a 2.63 xERA and an expected batting average of .218 both suggest regression. Waldrep’s electric debut stretch has been fun, but asking him to sustain it against a Miami lineup that’s heating up and an ace-level arm in Alcantara feels like too much.

This sets up as a strong spot for Miami behind Alcantara’s progression indicators and experience edge over Waldrep. I like the fish to swim away again tonight in Miami.

ATL vs MIA Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Nationals vs Yankees

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: Bronx, New York
Where to Watch: YES, MASN2
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+112) | Total: 9
Moneyline: WSH +154 | NYY -184

Leg 2: Nationals Runline +1.5 (-137)

While the New York Yankees drew first blood in this three-game interleague series, I like the Washington Nationals to bounce back with their best pitcher on the mound in the Bronx tonight.

MacKenzie Gore stayed put at the trade deadline, which is the main reason we are going with this play tonight. Gore sports a 4.11 ERA and 10.75 K rate this season, and is the unquestionable ace of this Nationals rotation. While the tough lefty has had his struggles since the deadline, he has also shown flashes of his dominant self. Gore put up a quality start against the elite Philadelphia Phillies, where he struck out seven two weeks ago, just days after shutting out the San Francisco Giants through six, while punching out 10. I expect him to step up against another quality team this eve, but one that has nto been at the top of their game lately.

The Yankees may still carry the “Bombers” nickname, but their bats have gone ice cold. Over the last month, New York has hit just .238, ranking 22nd in Major League Baseball. They’re OBP over that span is below league average, and as has become the norm for New York, they live and die with the home run.

True to form, New York is still chasing plenty. The Yankees rank sixth in strikeouts, whiffing nearly nine times a night (8.8 per game). That is not the profile you want against a pitcher like Gore, who is averaging 6.5 Ks per start. When an offense this reliant on home runs isn’t connecting, it leaves the door wide open for opponents to hang around.

On New York’s side of the ball, last year’s Rookie of the Year takes to the mound. It’s been an up-and-down return so far for Lucas Gil, who missed the first four months of the season with a lat strain. The young Dominican gave up five earned runs through 3.1 innings in his first start against the Marlins earlier this month. While he’s been better in his following three times on the bump, Gil has not gone deeper than 5.1 innings. I think Washington can rattle the second-year hurler to keep this game close.

With the Yankees struggling at the plate and the Nationals finding ways to stay competitive in tight games, taking Washington on the +1.5 runline offers value in what projects as another low-output night for New York’s lineup.

WSH vs NYY Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Phillies vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: TBS, SNY, NBCS-PH
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+152) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: PHI -108 | NYM -108

Leg 3: Mets Moneyline -108

The game of the night goes down in Queens, as the New York Mets look to keep their slim NL East crown hopes alive as they continue a three-game set against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies. New York took Game 1 in dominant fashion last night, smashing the Phils 13-3. I like this juggernaut offense to continue rolling and New York to pull within five games of Philadelphia with a “W" tonight.

This Mets’ lineup is scorching right now, and it’s not just about the star power. With Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor anchoring the order, this group is relentless — a deep, disciplined, and dangerous offense that punishes mistakes.

The underlying metrics only add weight to the eye test. New York ranks third in MLB in expected slugging (.461) and sits first in expected weighted on-base average (.348), meaning they’re consistently generating high-quality contact. When they square it up, it’s loud — third in xwOBA on contact (.403), third in barrel rate (10.4%), first in hard-hit rate (45.8%), and second in average exit velocity (90.6 MPH). It’s the profile of a team that doesn’t just score — it overwhelms.

It’s carried into results, too. The Mets sit seventh in OPS (.749) and top ten in runs scored. New York has hit elite arms and depth pieces with the same ruthless efficiency. No weak spots, no easy outs — this is a problem for any rotation.

On the mound, Sean Manaea brings stability for New York. After missing three and a half months with a left elbow injury, he’s settled back in, allowing just one earned run in each of his first three starts of 2025 before hitting a recent speed bump. While he hasn’t faced Philadelphia this season, he handled them well last year, logging 13 innings with 12 strikeouts, four earned runs allowed, and a win to show for it. That track record matters in a divisional spot like this.

I like New York to keep rolling against their division arch rivals after taking five of their first seven head-to-head matchups this season.

PHI vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates