MLB · 1 month ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Mets, Giants and Rangers Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Mets, Giants and Rangers Best Bets Today

We’re stacking a three-leg MLB parlay built around elite starting pitching, lopsided offensive matchups, and sharp value spots post-deadline. The Giants send their ace to the hill against a Pirates team waving the white flag, the Mets draw a dream runline setup with a mismatch in both pitching and power, and the Rangers ride a dominant Nathan Eovaldi against a Yankees offense that’s cooled.

With all three teams pushing down the stretch and top-tier arms on the bump, we’re locking in this +599 payout and banking on the arms to lead the way.

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Where to Watch Giants vs Pirates

Ballpark: PNC Park
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: SportsNet PT, NBCS-BA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SF -1.5 (+126) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: SF -138 | PIT +118

Leg 1: Giants Moneyline -138

Why the San Francisco Giants are priced so favorably with their ace on the mound against a very mediocre Pittsburgh Pirates team that sold off a bunch of key pieces at the MLB Trade Deadline is surprising to me.

Logan Webb has been one of the most consistent and solid pitchers in baseball for almost a decade and continues to chug along in 2025. Webb leads the staff with 155 strikeouts, while sporting a tidy 3.31 ERA and putting up 15 quality starts. His offspeed stuff has been the bread and butter as Webb sits in the top three percent of baseball with an offspeed run value of seven. Something Pittsburgh has seen firsthand very recently.

The Giants’ hurler stunted the Pirates’ offense for 5.2 innings in his last start, allowing just five hits for one earned run, while striking out 11. This wasn’t the first time Webb dominated Pittsburgh, as the 28-year-old spots a career 2.59 ERA over four starts against the Pirates, while averaging just over a K per inning. I expect more of the same against a subpar offense.

The Pirates sit dead last, averaging just 3.5 runs per game, while sitting fourth from the bottom with a .232 team batting average. Pittsburgh is also at the very bottom in OPS (.651) and slugging (.347). The problem is compounded by poor advanced metrics. The Buccos are in the bottom six in xwOBA (.314), xSLG (.398), and in the bottom ten in xwOBACON (.372).

While the Giants’ offense is much better, they have shown improvement lately. I don’t expect Webb to need a ton of run support tonight, as he gets the job done, basically on his own.

SF vs PIT Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: SNY, CLEG
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+126) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +136 | NYM -162

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Mets Runline +126

We’re riding with the revamped New York Mets to cover the runline against a Cleveland Guardians offense that’s been stuck in neutral for most of the season.

Clay Holmes toes the slab for the Mets, and while he’s transitioned into a starting role, the righty’s stuff has translated. He’s keeping the ball on the ground, missing barrels, and gets the benefit of facing a Guardians lineup that’s been ice-cold all year. Cleveland ranks dead last in expected batting average (.232), xSLG (.379), and xwOBA (.300). And the advanced contact metrics? No better. They’re bottom two in both barrel rate (6.9%) and hard-hit rate (36.1%).

Offensively, this is a big mismatch. The Mets have been teeing off on mediocre arms like Logan Allen all year. Allen enters with a 1.36 WHIP, .258 xBA, and a pedestrian 17.5% strikeout rate—not exactly the profile you want facing one of baseball’s most potent lineups. New York’s offense is loaded with lefty-killers and power bats: Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor, and deadline pickup Cedric Mullins add both thump and speed to a group that already ranks top five in expected slugging (.457), xwOBA on contact (.400), and barrel rate (10.4%).

And they’re not just flashing potential—they’re trending toward positive regression. The Mets have a .262 xBA but just a .241 actual batting average, suggesting more run production is coming. They’re also right around the top 10 in OBP, slugging, and OPS, which helps explain their consistent offensive pressure.

This one sets up as a textbook mismatch: a Cleveland team that can’t generate quality contact against a New York squad that’s mashing mistake pitches. We’ll back the Mets to win by multiple runs and avenge last night’s extra-innings series-opening loss.

CLE vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Yankees vs Rangers

Ballpark: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: RSN, YES
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Spread: TEX -1.5 (+160) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: NYY +108 | TEX -126

Leg 3: Rangers Moneyline -126

The Yankees’ offense might’ve been elite for most of the season, but lately? It’s been a different story. Over the past 15 days, New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in OPS (.721) and 24th in batting average at a bleak .226. What’s kept them afloat? The long ball. They’ve still managed to muscle up with 24 home runs over that span — third-most in the league — but outside of those blasts, it’s been a whole lot of empty swings and stranded runners. Expect more of the same against a Rangers pitcher having a career year.

Nathan Eovaldi’s 1.49 ERA would handily lead all of baseball if he weren’t a few innings short of qualifying. The former Miami Marlin is also sporting personal bests in WHIP (0.89), opponents’ batting average (.196), and is on pace for a new career mark in wins, already with nine. His advanced metrics are equally impressive.

Eovaldi sits in the top one percent of big league pitchers with a pitching run value of 28 to go along with an elite walk percentage of 5.1%. His fastball run value (13), breaking run value (7), and offspeed run value (8) all land inside the top eight percent of pitchers. It’s clear to see that the veteran hurler can get outs with multiple pitches, thanks to a vast arsenal.

While Eovaldi and much of the rest of the Rangers staff haven’t been getting a ton of run support, there are some reasons for that. Texas ranks 21st in total runs this season, stuck in the bottom third of the league with just 473 scored. Injuries to key bats like Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Joc Pederson have taken a clear toll, and sluggish first halves from Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia haven’t exactly helped the cause. That said, there’s reason to believe a turnaround is brewing. Since mid-July, Texas has averaged 5.07 runs per game — seventh-best in MLB — and the lineup’s recent spark could be a sign they’re finally starting to click at the right time.

While the bats haven’t been firing on all cylinders, the Rangers have stayed firmly in the mix thanks to lights-out pitching from Eovaldi and the entire staff. They lead all of baseball in team ERA (3.27) and WHIP (1.17), carrying the load while the offense works through its slump. The good news? Positive regression at the plate feels inevitable — and with a postseason spot just 1.5 games away, every inning from here on out is going to carry weight.

NYY vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates