MLB · 2 weeks ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Astros-Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Astros-Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers Picks and Best Bets Today

We’ve got a sharp three-leg MLB parlay lined up tonight with plenty of betting value across the board. The card starts with Toronto’s bats in a bounce-back spot against a fading Pittsburgh team, followed by Texas looking to handle business in a pick ’em matchup against Kansas City’s struggling offense. We’ll close things out in Detroit, where two of the American League’s Cy Young front-runners are set to lock horns in what projects as a classic pitcher’s duel.

Each leg offers a strong angle built on both advanced metrics and matchup context, creating a path to a solid payout.

Let’s hit it.

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Where to Watch Astros vs Tigers

Ballpark: Comerica Park
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Where to Watch: TBS, FDSDET, SCHN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: DET -1.5 (+132) | Total: 7
Moneyline: HOU +138 | DET -164

Leg 1: Game Total Under 7 (-110)

When the total is low, under is where we go. With two of the top three favorites for the American League Cy Young on the mound tonight in Motown, runs will be at a premium between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers. Tigers starter Tarik Skubal (-250) has been the favorite to win his second straight Cy most of the season, while Houston hurler Hunter Brown has not been far behind. Both are having fantastic seasons, but Skubal is on another level.

The scintillating southpaw has been nearly untouchable this season, sitting atop the American League with a 2.42 ERA and the best strikeout rate in the circuit at 11.23 per nine innings. Skubal also carries the lowest WHIP in the majors at 0.87 and leads all AL pitchers in WAR at 5.5. His advanced profile only reinforces how dominant he’s been. The Tigers’ ace owns the top pitching run value in baseball at 42 and an xERA of 2.68, ranking him among the elite five percent of arms in the league. Skubal is also generating swings outside the zone at a 34.2% clip—top five percent territory—while his 32.8% whiff rate places him inside the upper seven percent of all pitchers. Despite Houston being a competent offense, it will be tough to get anything going against him tonight.

The Tigers’ bats, while equally solid as the Astros, will have the same type of trouble making noise against Brown. Brown has been elite all season, sitting third in the AL with an ERA right behind Skubal at 2.45. The 26-year-old hurler is also right up there in strikeouts, sitting fourth in the AL with 10.32 per nine. Brown’s pitching run value score of 27 puts him in the top two percent of big league arms, while his fastball run value (20) also puts him in the upper two percent. The tough righty manages to generate a lot of soft contact, sitting in the top five percent, allowing an average exit velocity of just 86.3 MPH. Brown’s 29.4% K rate is also impressive, landing him in the league’s top 11 percent. The Detroit native may have some extra motivation pitching in his hometown tonight, also the place he went to college at Wayne State.

While both lineups are no slouches, I expect tonight to be your old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, with both starters going deep and limiting offensive production.

HOU vs DET Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Pirates

Ballpark: PNC Park
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: SportsNet PT, SNET
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: TOR -1.5 (+116) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: TOR -148 | PIT +126

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Blue Jays Runline +116

The Toronto Blue Jays did not get their six-game road trip off to a good start after dropping last night’s series opener 5-2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates. That said, they are in a perfect bounce-back position to get the offense going tonight against Mitch Keller.

Toronto brings one of the most well-rounded offenses in the game, and the numbers back it up. The Jays pace the league in batting average at .268 — comfortably ahead of the field — while also sitting atop MLB in on-base percentage at .338. They pair that consistency with plenty of punch, ranking third overall in OPS (.767) and inside the top six in total runs scored with 617.

The underlying data only reinforces the legitimacy of that production. Toronto has the highest expected batting average in baseball (.273) and is in the top five in both expected batting average (.342) and expected slugging percentage (.445). That combination speaks to an offense that consistently grinds out quality at-bats and produces runs across all matchups, not one that simply capitalizes on favorable spots. Against a Pirates staff leaning on a struggling veteran, the Blue Jays’ proven lineup depth should give them a clear path to making some noise.

Mitch Keller has not looked good since most thought he would be moved at the MLB Trade Deadline. In his past four starts, the Pirates starter has given up 16 runs and failed to get into the fifth in two of those outings. Keller’s ERA has ballooned to 4.13 from 3.48 since mid-July, and it looks like he, along with the 53-73 Pirates, are just going through the motions. The same can not be said for his opponent on the mound.

Max Scherzer has turned back the clock to vintage Mad Max for his AL East-leading club. The former Washington National has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts and has watched his ERA shrink from 5.63 to 3.83 since late June. Scherzer has gone at least six in his past four starts, tossing 26 innings over that span. The future Hall of Famer is limiting quality contact and giving his team an excellent chance to compete every five days.

Scherzer will get his chance to silence an offense that has been very quiet all year. The Pirates rank in the bottom 10 in xBA (.248), xSLG (.396), xwOBA (.314), and xwOBACON (.372) on the season. It’s no surprise that, given those metrics, Pittsburgh is the lowest-scoring team in baseball, averaging just 3.5 runs per game.

I like Scherzer shutting down a deplorable Pirates offense and the Jays bats to get going to deliver us a mult-run “W" tonight.

TOR vs PIT Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Rangers vs Royals

Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Where to Watch: FDSKC, RSN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: TEX -1.5 (+160) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: TEX -108 | KC -108

Leg 3: Rangers Moneyline -108

Although the Texas Rangers have struggled a bit lately, I’m surprised we are getting them at this pick ’em price against a poor offense like the Kansas City Royals.

There’s no way around it — Kansas City’s offense has been one of the weakest in baseball. The Royals are managing just 3.8 runs per game, the third-lowest mark in the majors. Their .696 OPS ranks 23rd, with a .391 slugging percentage (22nd) and only 116 home runs (28th), underscoring how little pop this lineup brings to the table. Simply put, opposing pitchers aren’t losing sleep over this group.

The advanced numbers only confirm what the surface stats already show. KC sits sixth-worst in xwOBACON (.366), while both their xwOBA (.323) and xSLG (.422) land in the bottom half of MLB. Their hard-hit rate is just 40.1% (ninth-worst), paired with a 7.5% barrel rate that ranks 25th. That profile paints the picture of an offense that struggles to make consistent, quality contact. Against a Rangers club built on elite pitching, the advantage tilts heavily toward Texas in this pick ’em spot.

It’s simple to see that what is keeping the Rangers in contention is their arms. Texas leads all of baseball with a sparkling 3.45 ERA and a league-best 1.19 WHIP, giving them a steady foundation even when the bats lag. That said, it has been more often than not that the offense has stalled.

Texas hasn’t consistently flashed the offensive muscle we’ve come to expect, sitting just 24th in the league in total runs at 515. Key injuries to Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Joc Pederson have taken a toll, while inconsistency from Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia kept the lineup from firing on all cylinders. Even so, there’s a strong sense this roster has more production ahead as it pushes toward the stretch run. They’ve shown signs, sporting an OPS of .713 over the past month, while sitting in the middle of the league in runs scored over that span.

Merrill Kelly hopes it’s the more recent version of the Rangers offense that shows up tonight. Kelly has been good for Texas since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, holding two of his three opponents to two runs each. He’s coming off a solid performance against his most recent former team, as he held the D-backs to just two earned, while striking out five across six productive innings.

Expect the Rangers to come out with some urgency tonight, as they look to keep their fading wild-card hopes alive.

TEX vs KC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates