MLB · 1 month ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Astros, Blue Jays, Padres Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Astros, Blue Jays, Padres Picks and Best Bets Today

Let’s ride this MLB betting heater. After cashing back-to-back parlays — including a clean three-leg sweep yesterday — we’re rolling into Thursday with serious momentum. The books keep dangling value, and we’re not backing down. Toronto keeps printing tickets, San Diego’s lurking with sneaky upside, and Houston looks primed to pounce on a bottom-tier A’s squad.

We’re chasing a three-piece once again with a mix of plus-money and smart chalk, anchored by teams either on the rise or holding steady at the top of their game. No reason to swerve now. Let’s keep pressing while the edge is still there.

Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Tigers

Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Where to Watch: MLB Network, FDSDET, SNET
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: DET -1.5 (+164) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: TOR +106 | DET -124

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Blue Jays Moneyline at Tigers +106

It’s going to be really tough getting me off this Toronto Blue Jays train as hot as they have been the past couple of months, especially when the books keep serving up plus money. Fresh off a series win and 8-4 sloshing of Max Fried and the last night, the Jays head to Motown to battle for the best record in baseball with the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit is half a game back of the Blue Jays for a share of the best record in the AL, alongside the Houston Astros, while Toronto is a game back of the Milwaukee Brewers for a tie for the best record in baseball. As an admitted lifelong Blue Jays fan, I’m still as amazed as anyone that we are having the conversation about Toronto as the top team in MLB. But there are plenty of reasons why, starting with their potent offense.

Toronto enters Thursday leading MLB with a .261 team batting average, ranks second in on-base percentage (.332), and sits in the top ten in both runs scored per game (4.6) and OPS (.740). The underlying metrics back the profile — Toronto paces MLB in expected batting average (.269), ranks fifth in xwOBA (.338), and sits in the top ten in xwOBACON (.373). At Rogers Centre, the offense takes it up a notch. The Jays have tallied the second-most home runs in their own ballpark and lead the league with a .274 home batting average. Now they have to take that hellacious homeshow and prove they can get it done on the road.

The Jays’ offense hasn’t been bad away from home, still sitting top ten in road batting average and on-base percentage, but runs have definitely been more of a challenge outside of Toronto. Luckily for the Jays, they have a pitcher on the mound who hasn’t needed a ton of run support recently.

Eric Lauer has been a revelation for the Blue Birds this season. Once an afterthought on a one-year deal with Toronto, expected to likely be a long man in the bullpen, the former Brewer has made nine starts in blue and white this year and made the most of all of them. Lauer has yet to allow more than three runs in any appearance all season and has just one loss in his past 10 times on the mound. The cagey lefty leads the staff’s starting pitching with a 2.80 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

While Detroit has hit southpaws well this season, Lauer has been as consistent as it gets. I expect the Jays will get to Tigers starter Reese Olson, who is winless in his past five, to give Lauer some backup tonight.

TOR vs DET Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Padres vs Cardinals

Ballpark: Busch Stadium
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Where to Watch: FDSMW, SDPA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Spread: STL -1.5 (+140) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: SD +126 | STL -148

Leg 2: Padres Moneyline at Cardinals +126

I love what Sonny Gray has been doing as a pitcher this season, but being tagged with a -148 price tag against a National League wild card team seems like a little bit too much respect for the veteran SP. Tonight, the San Diego Padres get their respect against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Gray’s nine wins, nine quality starts, and 1.15 WHIP aside, he hasn’t looked like the pitcher that got off to such a great start this season. After going at least five in four straight starts, which included a complete game, and allowing just seven earned over that span, the wheels came off for Gray in his last start. The Arizona Diamondbacks pounded the veteran righty over 3.1 innings, notching 11 hits and eight earned runs. It was the second straight start Gray failed to go much past three innings after a rain delay cut his final start before the All-Star break short. This means the Cardinals starter has pitched just 6.1 innings in two-plus weeks. I’m not expecting him to be at his sharpest.

San Diego’s bats have been riding a razor’s edge this season. The Padres sit in the top 10 of baseball with a .257 xBA, 12 points higher than their actual batting average of .245. This suggests San Diego is due for an uptick in production at the plate, and I expect it to show itself tonight. I also expect their recently returned starting pitcher to take another step forward.

Yu Darvish missed the first three-plus months of the season while battling right elbow inflammation. The veteran right-hander returned this month and has three starts under his belt so far. After going just 3.2 innings in his first start of the season on July 7, Darvish has crept up his pitch count, lasting a season-best five innings in his last start on July 19 against the Washington Nationals. While control has been a bit of an issue with the early returns, he did limit his walks to just one free pass after allowing three in each of his first two starts of the year.

Darvish may have caught a break, matching up against a very mediocre Cardinals offense tonight. St. Louis sits eighth from the bottom with a .368 xwOBACON, and their .414 xSLG puts them among the bottom 10 of baseball.

I like the Padres’ price and see San Diego getting the dub in the Lou tonight.

SD vs STL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Athletics vs Astros

Ballpark: Daikin Park
Location: Houston, Texas
Where to Watch: MLB Network, SCHN, and NBCS-CA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Spread: HOU -1.5 (+158) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: ATH +110 | HOU -130

Leg 3: Astros Moneyline vs Athletics -130

The top team in the American League looks to open its series against the Junior Circuit’s perennial bottom dwellers as the Houston Astros host a four-game set against the Athletics. I like for the ‘Stros to keep on rolling.

The Athletics limp into H-town after getting swept in Arlington by the Texas Rangers in a three-game set. Last night’s loss dropped the A’s to 22-31, and they are in danger of dropping their fifth straight game tonight. If the Athletics offense has anything to say about it, they’ll do just that.

Houston, on the other hand, has been locked in all season. The Astros are second in baseball with a .259 team batting average and rank in the top 10 in OBP (.324), SLG (.409), and OPS (.733). It’s been much of the same over the past 30 days, where Houston sits second in batting average and top 10 in all the rest of the major hitting categories. Perhaps even more impressive has been their performance on the mound.

The ‘Stros sit sixth in all of baseball in team ERA at 3.59 and second with a 1.17 WHIP. Houston’s .226 batting average allowed to opponents leads MLB, and its 979 strikeouts on the season also top the bigs. While it may seem like tonight’s starter for the Astros is about nothing, there may be more than meets the eye.

Jason “Costanza" Alexander takes the bump in St. Louis, looking to prove he is indeed master of his domain. Getting the call for his first MLB action since early July, Alexander has excelled in the minors this season. The 32-year-old righty has impressed through eight Triple A outings (seven starts) for Sugar Land this season, posting a sharp 1.69 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 36:21 strikeout-to-walk mark over 42.2 innings.

I like Houston to rough up A’s starter Luis Severino tonight and add on to their American League lead.

ATH vs HOU Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates