Mets vs Phillies: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay

We’re not even in July yet, and the NL East is already playing with playoff intensity. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies locked horns for a weekend set, splitting the first two games of the series. The Phillies are the betting favorites heading into tonight’s rubber match, but we think the Mets have other plans. 

These are the bets we’re making for our Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay!

Where to Watch New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: PHI -1.5 | Total: 9
• Moneyline: PHI -122 | NYM +104
  
• Matchup Page

Leg 1: Mets 

The Mets’ recent slide isn’t indicative of their lineup potential. Saturday’s win versus the Phillies ended a seven-game losing streak, but we don’t expect them to fall back into that trap on Sunday night. 

New York sends David Peterson to the mound to continue his sensational start to the campaign. The southpaw is toting a sterling 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, consistent with some of his other underlying metrics. 

Specifically, Peterson is one of the best at inducing ground balls, getting batters to keep the ball on the ground 58.2% of the time. Altogether, he ranks in the 93rd percentile in pitching run value, playing into the Mets’ road advantage at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies’ increased run production is incompatible with their stagnant OPS and underlying metrics. They will have a hard time getting to Peterson and the rest of the Mets’ bullpen. Look for the Mets to leave Philadelphia with the series win. 

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Leg 2: Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts +110

The Phillies counter with Jesus Luzardo in the series finale. Granted, Luzardo has some electric strikeout stuff. Still, a few factors are pointing toward him falling below 5.5 punch outs on Sunday Night Baseball. 

First and foremost, Luzardo has fallen below this benchmark in three of his last four. While he has a 10 K performance sandwiched in between those starts, the Phillies’ lefty has fallen below four strikeouts in those three other starts. Inherent in that, Luzardo doesn’t get a lot of length out of his starts. He has gotten out of the fifth inning just once over that stretch. 

Additionally, the Mets are one of the more disciplined teams at the plate. They have recorded the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the bigs, walking back to the dugout just 23.3% of the time. 

Given his recent decline in performance, we aren’t expecting Luzardo to fool many Mets’ hitters. We’re taking the plus-money and backing the Phillies’ starter to fall below 5.5 Ks.  

Leg 3: Starling Marte to Record an RBI +210

The Mets get production from top to bottom, but an unsuspecting contributor has emerged in the heart of the order. Starling Marte is riding a four-game hit streak into tonight’s intra-divisional clash, which has been part of a much more impressive streak. 

While he has only appeared in 13 games, Marte has a beefy .867 OPS this month. Included in that sample are four extra-base hits and just four RBI. Given his recent improved approach at the plate, we are expecting a deluge of runs from Marte over the coming games.

Typically, Marte bats either second or fifth, setting him up for plenty of run-scoring opportunities. Batting behind Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and/or Francisco Lindor leaves plenty of runners on base for Marte to cash in—his recent power surge points toward an inevitable increase in RBI shortly. 

Marte is finding his groove at the plate, but it has yet to translate to meaningful run production. That imbalance suggests that we should see more fruitful plate appearances from the two-time All-Star. We’re betting that starts in tonight’s series finale versus the Phillies.  

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Mets vs. Phillies: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks:

• Mets +104
• Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts +110
• Starling Marte to Record an RBI +210

Parlaying all three picks could return bettors +670 on their investment. We’re making plays on the Mets moneyline, Jesus Luzardo under 5.5 strikeouts, and Starling Marte to record an RBI.