Mets vs. Giants: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay

The New York Mets have put a dent in the San Francisco Giants‘ postseason aspirations. New York made the cross-country trek and easily dispatched the Giants by a cumulative 10-2 margin through the first two games of this inter-divisional set. Sending their ace to the bump for the series finale, we have the utmost confidence in the Mets to continue their scorching play on Sunday Night Baseball.

Check out which bets we’re including in tonight’s Same Game Parlay!

Where to Watch New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants

• Ballpark: Oracle Park
• Location: San Francisco, CA
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: NYM -1.5 | Total: 8
• Moneyline: NYM -124 | SF +106

Leg 1: Mets -124

The Mets’ dominance isn’t limited to their weekend series versus the Giants. The NL East leaders have won six in a row and eight of their last 11. While their offense has looked good at times, New York’s pitching has been the difference-maker for the Mets. With Kodai Senga toeing the rubber in the series finale, surely, that will continue. 

Senga is coming off a rough outing, in which he gave up four earned runs across 3.0 innings pitched. Still, that’s been the exception to an otherwise very reliable rule. Across his five previous starts, the deceptive righty had given up just five runs over 27.1 innings pitched, for a 1.65 ERA. Another sterling performance is expected in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. 

But we can’t look past the Mets’ relievers either. Currently, they have compiled the 10th-best ERA in the majors, but their recent performances inspire even more confidence. Across their last 14.1 innings pitched, New York’s bullpen has held opponents to a paltry 10 hits, three walks, and just two earned runs. In more traditional terms, that equates to 0.91 walks and hits per inning pitched and a sparkling 1.25 ERA.

There’s nothing the Giants can do to get to the Mets’ pitchers in this one. We’re taking a firm stance on the visitors, backing New York to pull off the three-game sweep in San Fran.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run +540

With just one hit through the opening two games, Pete Alonso has been a virtual non-factor in this series. Nevertheless, the Polar Bear should get back to his hard-hitting ways on Sunday night. 

Alonso has cooled off of late. The Mets’ first baseman has just four hits over his last nine games, with only one of those going for extra bases. Still, his actual stats have fallen significantly below expected values, and it’s time for Alonso to start mashing again. 

Heading into tonight’s contest, Alonso ranks as one of the premier hitters in the bigs. He sits in the 95th percentile or better in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and bat speed; however, there is still room for growth in his traditional stats. Currently, Alonso’s .510 slugging percentage is 100 points below his expected value of .605. 

Alonso has home run potential every time he steps to the plate, even at Oracle Park. His home run price has dipped so far that there is undeniable value in backing him to send one out. We’re including this as the second leg of our Same Game Parlay.

Leg 3: Brett Baty to Record an RBI +210

Let’s take a moment and appreciate one of the overlooked batters in the Mets’ lineup. Brett Baty has recorded hits in eight straight games, including two home runs and three extra-base hits. While he can’t always be counted on to drive in runs, we’re betting he’s a factor in tonight’s clash versus the Giants.

His analytics profile validates Baty’s recent uptick in productivity. While he doesn’t rank as an elite hitter, Baty has a promising analytics profile. Moreover, there’s room for improvement from the Mets’ third baseman.

As it stands, Baty sits in the 62nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, complemented by a 79th percentile ranking in barrel rate and an All-Star caliber 90th percentile ranking in bat speed. Still, his slugging percentage is almost 30 points shy of expected, and his power metrics point toward sustained production in the bottom half of the Mets’ order.

Over the past two weeks, Baty has been one of the most reliable hitters for the Mets. Furthermore, his analytics profile suggests renewed success in the short term. This is another value play, but we’re adding Baty to record an RBI to our Sunday Night Baseball parlay.

Mets vs. Giants: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks

• Mets -124
• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run +540
• Brett Baty to Record an RBI +210

This Mets’ stack could yield bettors a hefty +1987 return on their investment. We’re getting a piece of the Mets moneyline, adding Pete Alonso to hit a home run and Brett Baty to drive in a run to our three-leg Same Game Parlay.