Kris Bubic of the Kansas City Royals Trade Value
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Kris Bubic: Kansas City’s Surprise Ace — But For How Long?
If you’d told Royals fans back in March that Bubic would carry a sub-2.20 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning into July, they’d have laughed you out of the BBQ line at Kauffman Stadium. Yet here we are — Bubic has delivered one of 2025’s best bounce-back stories.
Through 91 innings, he’s posted a 2.18 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts — all career bests by a mile. His command is tighter, the changeup is dancing again, and he’s giving Kansas City real innings when they desperately needed rotation stability.
But here’s the rub: Bubic’s resurgence also comes with a big neon innings limit warning sign blinking above it.
The Red Flag: Innings History Can’t Be Ignored
This is where the story gets tricky — and where fantasy managers and bettors need to pay attention. Bubic threw just 60-something innings total in 2024, bouncing between rehab, the minors, and the big-league club. The year before? Barely 16 innings as he worked back from injury.
Now he’s pushing 100 innings before the All-Star break. For any team — especially a mid-market club with a shaky timeline like the Royals — this is exactly the scenario where cautious front offices step in and manage workload carefully.
Yes, the Royals are only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. But they’d have to leapfrog six teams to sneak in — and their rotation depth has already taken hits with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both missing time. If Kansas City slips further back in the race, Bubic could easily see his starts shortened or get skipped altogether in August and September.
The Fantasy Play: Cash Out While You Can
If you roster Bubic in fantasy, this is exactly the window where you pivot — even if he’s been the steal of your staff so far. The return you can get for a young, efficient lefty with shiny surface stats is about as good as it gets right now.
If you wait and the Royals pull him back to protect his arm, his trade value evaporates overnight. Even if he stays active, you could see shorter outings and early hooks. He’s already 60 innings over last year’s total, and that’s exactly when front offices hit the brakes.
Same goes for fellow innings-risk arms like Clay Holmes of the New York Mets (with his extreme overperformance signs) and Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays (84 innings this year after a bullpen-heavy 2024). These guys can quietly sink your playoff push if you hang on too long.
Betting Angle: Be Smart With Bubic Futures
For bettors, the lesson is similar. If you grabbed Bubic props — overs on strikeouts or innings pitched — early this season, you’ve banked solid value. But the sharp angle now is to fade that second-half workload.
If you see markets still pricing him like a full-workhorse starter down the stretch, the under is the lean. Kansas City is playing for the long haul, not one hot summer. Books may be slow to adjust to innings caps if Bubic stays healthy but gets scaled back anyway.
Day-to-day, he’s still a sharp matchup play — especially at Kauffman Stadium, which can soften hard contact. But season-long over bets? Now’s the time to look the other way.
The Verdict: Enjoy the Story, Play It Smart
Bubic has already paid off big for anyone who drafted him, streamed him, or bet on his breakout. But you can’t get sentimental in July — not when workloads and young arms collide.
If you can flip Bubic for a stable bat or innings-eater in fantasy, do it before his value dips. If you’re betting him? Stay sharp — lean under on workload props if they stay too high and keep an eye on Kansas City’s playoff reality.
In the end, Bubic has done his job. Now it’s on you to make sure you don’t miss your shot to squeeze out the last bit of value before the Royals quietly close the book on a surprise breakout.
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