Frankie Montas of the New York Mets Vs. the Kansas City Royals

Frankie Montas Rejoins the New York Mets at a Critical Crossroads

The Mets send Montas to the mound Saturday against the Kansas City Royals, marking his first MLB start in over a month. After a spring marked by rotation optimism, the Mets’ pitching staff has been held together by sheer willpower (and maybe some duct tape). With Kodai Senga returning Friday and Sean Manaea expected to piggyback Sunday, the Mets are desperate for a stabilizing effort from Montas—especially as converted reliever Clay Holmes begin to wear down.

Montas, whose early 2025 outings were promising (3.67 ERA across 7 starts), must now shoulder a more significant burden. His task? Eat innings, avoid damage, and keep a scuffling Mets team—just 11-16 over their last 27 games—in the Wild Card mix.

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Matchup Breakdown: Royals Steady, But Beat-Able

Montas gets a manageable opponent in Kansas City, who’s hovered around .500 and has struggled to maintain offensive consistency. The Royals rank bottom third in MLB in runs scored on the road, and their projected Saturday lineup lacks punch outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino.

But don’t overlook this group. Kansas City has embraced a scrappy, contact-first approach, and they’ve won 7 of their last 10 when facing right-handed starters. If Montas is still working back to form, the Royals are capable of capitalizing on mistakes—even if it’s only for 3–4 runs.

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Betting Outlook: Where’s the Value?

As of Saturday morning, odds were holding steady with the Mets as -130 favorites, while the total sat at 8.5 runs. Here’s how to bet it:

– Lean Mets ML (-130 or better)

Montas’s return adds uncertainty, but the Mets are the better overall team—even without Alonso. The bullpen (ranked 5th in ERA since mid-June) can pick up the slack if Montas doesn’t go deep.

– First Five Under 4.5 Runs

If you’re wary of trusting Montas over the full game, consider isolating the first five innings. The Royals’ starter (likely Michael Lorenzen) hasn’t been officially confirmed, but early indicators suggest a moderate-scoring start before bullpens add chaos.

– Player Prop Watch: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases

If there’s one bat that can ruin Montas’s return, it’s Witt. He’s hitting .321 vs. righties this year and leads the Royals in hard-hit rate. Against a pitcher working off rust, Witt is a sneaky candidate for an extra-base hit or multi-hit game.

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Mets’ Bigger Picture: Walking a Rotation Tightrope

While Saturday is about Montas, the weekend rotation plan reveals the Mets’ precarious state:

• Friday: Senga returns after a lengthy layoff—looked solid but still ramping up.

• Saturday: Montas takes the ball in his first outing in over a month.

• Sunday: Rookie Holmes (being heavily monitored due to innings) opens, with Manaea expected to piggyback.

That’s not a playoff rotation—it’s a juggling act. New York’s early-season surge put them in postseason position, but if Montas and Manaea can’t hold the line, the Mets may find themselves buried by August.

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Final Word: Montas is the Key to the Mets’ Second-Half Hopes

Saturday’s game might not headline the national slate, but for New York, it’s pivotal. Montas could be the glue that prevents a pitching meltdown—or another name on the injury list. If he holds firm against a beatable Royals offense, bettors can cash in on value before oddsmakers adjust.

Bet lean: Mets ML & First Five Under

Prop sprinkle: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB

This is a hinge point for the Mets—and Montas has the chance to turn their pitching crisis into a second-half rally.

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