MLB · 3 months ago

Citrus Series Highlight: Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Analysis

Sportsgrid Staff

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Citrus Series Highlight: Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Analysis

All Eyes on Sandy of the Miami Marlins: Alcantara’s Struggles Loom Over Citrus Series vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Rays vs. Marlins: Rivalry Heats Up in the Sunshine State

The Citrus Series is always a highlight in Florida baseball, and Saturday’s matchup between the Rays and Marlins brings plenty of intrigue — and even more uncertainty.

Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, takes the mound for Miami, trying to stop the bleeding after an alarming run of form. He’s lost five straight starts, a first in his career, and while his most recent outing was a bit better, the ace we’ve known still hasn’t returned in full.

He’ll face Drew Rasmussen, who’s been solid for Tampa Bay following his return from injury. Rasmussen, a command-first righty with swing-and-miss upside, represents a real test for a Marlins lineup that only recently showed signs of life after a prolonged scoring drought.

Sandy Alcantara: Still Searching for “Ace” Mode

Alcantara’s 2025 has been a puzzle. Coming off Tommy John surgery, the velocity is there in flashes, but the movement and control that defined his breakout campaign haven’t quite clicked. He’s issued more walks than usual, is struggling with pitch efficiency, and has yet to pitch past the 6th inning this season.

From a fantasy perspective, he’s become unstartable — even on home turf. His WHIP has ballooned above 1.40, and his ERA sits near 5.00. For the Marlins, that’s not just a problem for 2025 — it’s a trade problem.

Sources indicate Miami is willing to move Alcantara before the deadline, knowing they can’t retain him long-term. But to get real value back, he needs to perform like an ace again. Saturday could be a showcase opportunity — or another blow to his value.

Betting Breakdown: Proceed With Caution

Saturday Line Watch:

The game opened close to even money with slight lean toward Tampa Bay (-115).
Total runs set at 8, depending on weather and final lineups.

Betting Strategy:

❌ Avoid Full Game ML: With Alcantara unpredictable and Rasmussen steady but not dominant, it’s tough to back either side with confidence.
✅ Lean Tampa Bay First 5 Innings (-0.5): The Rays have been more consistent early, and Miami has struggled out of the gate in most Alcantara starts.
✅ Over 8 Total Runs: Tampa’s lineup has been drawing walks and stringing together hits. If Alcantara doesn’t find his command, this game could get away from him fast.
🎯 Prop Watch:
- Yandy Díaz Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Sandy Alcantara Under 17.5 Outs Recorded

Given Miami’s bullpen usage and Alcantara’s shortened outings, there’s value in fading his innings prop until he shows sustained form.

Sunday Sneak Peek: Shane Baz vs. Cal Quantrill

Sunday’s series finale features a fascinating duel between Baz and Quantrill. Baz, another former top prospect returning from injury, has looked sharp and explosive in limited work. His fastball-slider combo can dominate lineups like Miami’s if he keeps his walk rate in check.

Quantrill, by contrast, has been dependable, limiting damage but lacking swing-and-miss stuff. If the Marlins don’t support him early, Sunday could be Tampa’s edge.

Early Sunday Lean:

Rays ML (if under -130)
Under 4.5 F5 Runs
Baz K prop (Over 5.5, depending on number)

Final Word: Big Weekend for Sandy and the Marlins

This series is bigger than just an in-state rivalry. For Alcantara, it’s about proving he’s still capable of being a frontline arm. For the Marlins, it’s about building trade leverage, not just momentum.

For bettors, Saturday is a volatile spot. Alcantara’s name still carries weight, but his recent performance doesn’t back it up. Until he shows sustained command and stamina, fade the narrative and lean toward the more stable Tampa Bay side — especially early in the game.

Saturday Best Bets Recap: