Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners’ Monster Start
Raleigh, dubbed “Big Dumper” by Mariners faithful, has launched himself into a new tier of fantasy relevance in 2025. With Cal’s number set at 47 home runs, fantasy managers and futures bettors are buzzing about whether Raleigh can sustain this torrid pace.
He wasn’t a top-tier fantasy draft target among catchers—names like Will Smith (Los Angeles Dodgers), Adley Rutschman (Baltimore Orioles), and William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) went earlier—but Raleigh’s power surge has made him a league-winning asset in deeper formats and daily fantasy alike.
Currently sitting on a mid-20s home run total just 60 games in, the math says he’s pacing for high 40s to even low 50s. But should we buy or sell the over on 47 bombs?
🔍 Stat Profile & Historical Context
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2023 HR Total: 30
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2024 HR Total: 34 (career high)
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2025 Projection (Current Pace): 48–52 HR
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Barrel Rate & Hard-Hit %: Among top 5 at the catcher position
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Pull Power + Park Factors: T-Mobile Park plays neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly, but Raleigh’s raw power neutralizes this
Add in some DH days (Seattle wisely rotating him out of the crouch to keep him fresh), and Raleigh’s volume outlook improves dramatically—more PAs, fewer injury concerns.
🔋 Durability vs. Reality: Catchers Get Beat Up
This is the one real counterargument. Playing catcher is a war of attrition:
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Foul tips
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90+ degree doubleheaders
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Constant crouching
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Increased injury risk
Even the best power-hitting backstops—think Mike Piazza or Javy López—often saw fatigue reduce their second-half outputs. If Raleigh slows in August, his final home run tally could settle in the low-to-mid 40s, narrowly missing the 47 mark.
Verdict: SELL.
Expect a heroic season, just not record-setting. A .240 average, 42 HRs, and 95+ RBI makes him the top fantasy catcher not named Adley—but shy of 47 jacks.
🧠 Betting Edge: Can You Wager on 47+?
At some advanced books or prop platforms, you might find season-long HR lines:
Raleigh to hit Over 47.5 Home Runs
❌ Odds: +180 (Implied Probability: 35.7%)
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Why We Lean Under:
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Catcher fatigue fades late-season slugging
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Regression on fastball damage expected
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Mariners likely to play cautious with rest in playoff push
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📉 Recommended Bet:
Take Under 47.5 HRs at anything -110 or better. Buy alternate lines like Over 39.5 or Over 41.5 if available for plus money.
⚾️ Fantasy Tier Rest-of-Season (ROS)
| Tier | Players | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elite | Rutschman, Smith | Full 5-category contributors |
| Power Kings | Raleigh, Contreras | 30–40 HR upside with modest average |
| Safe Floors | Jonah Heim (Texas Rangers), Gabriel Moreno (Arizona Diamondbacks), Tyler Stephenson (Cincinnati Reds) | High-AB, low-upside producers |
Raleigh’s ROS rank among catchers? Top 3 locked, maybe even #1 if he stays hot.
🏆 Bonus Buy: AL MVP Dark Horse?
If not for Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees MVP gravity, Raleigh would be in the AL MVP conversation. He’s carrying Seattle’s offense, providing top-5 WAR among AL position players, and his defensive work behind the plate has vastly improved.
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Current AL MVP Odds: +2500 to +5000 (longshot range)
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Worth a sprinkle if Judge misses time or cools off
🔚 Final Word
Raleigh is this season’s fantasy darling and a potential home run champ—especially stunning given his ADP outside the top 10 catchers.
Buy him in fantasy, buy alternate over HR props, but sell the 47+ bomb dream. Still, you’re looking at a career-defining year from the Big Dumper.
