Braves vs. Phillies: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay
Grant White
Host · Writer
This hasn’t been the Atlanta Braves‘ year. Still, the Philadelphia Phillies wanted to make sure the Braves knew just how bad they are. Philadelphia has taken the first three games of this series, executing come-from-behind victories in each of the previous two contests after trouncing Atlanta 19-4 in the series opener. It remains to be seen whether Atlanta can pull off the upset, but the ‘under’ trend we’ve seen should persist another game.
These are the bets we’re targeting in tonight’s NL East clash on Sunday Night Baseball!
Where to Watch Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
- Location: Philadelphia, PA
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Spread: PHI -1.5 | Total: 8.5
- Moneyline: PHI -162 | ATL +136
Leg 1: Under 8.5 +102
Since an ugly series opener, both pitching staffs have been at their best over the past couple of games. There’s no reason to believe we deviate from that trend in tonight’s wrap-up.
Hurston Waldrep has been an absolute stud since returning to the mound at the start of the month. The young righty has given up just three earned runs across 30.0 innings pitched, without any of the five opponents he’s faced recording more than one run. Moreover, Waldrep has excelled at keeping foes off the basepaths, giving up just 0.90 walks and hits per inning pitched.
Similarly, Jesus Luzardo has been on an exceptional run. The Phillies’ southpaw has five quality starts over his previous six outings. Across that sample, Luzardo has given up 12 earned runs over 35.0 innings pitched for a 3.08 ERA. Baserunners have been equally scarce, with Luzardo twirling a 0.97 WHIP.
As we’ve seen throughout the series, the Braves and Phillies’ bullpens have been up to the task, as well. We’re betting on another low-scoring game, with this NL East affair staying beneath the total.
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Leg 2: Hurston Waldrep to Record 5+ Strikeouts +142
Up until his most recent start, Hurston Waldrep had been sitting opposing batters down at an elite rate. Considering his deceptive six-pitch mix and the Phillies’ current free-swinging state, we’re predicting a sharp increase in Waldrep’s strikeouts on Sunday.
Through his first four starts, the former first-round pick had no problem punching opposing hitters out. Waldrep had accumulated 24 strikeouts across 24.2 innings pitched, for an 8.8 K/9 rate and a 25.0% strikeout percentage. Included in that were 20 strikeouts across 19.0 innings pitched. After failing to record a strikeout last time out, we’re forecasting a swift increase in Ks versus the Phillies.
Waldrep uses his six-pitch mix flawlessly. He turns to his splitter more than any other offering, inducing a .215 expected slugging percentage and generating a 43.9% whiff rate. That makes it five of six pitches with a 20.0% whiff rate or better.
Philadelphia has seen an increase in strikeouts over its recent stretch, playing into Hurston Waldrep’s presumed increase on Sunday night. The Phillies rank 20th in the MLB in strikeouts this season, a ranking that has dropped them to the 11th-most over the past week. Waldrep should have no problem reaching 5 strikeouts at Citizens Bank Park.
Leg 3: Matt Olson to Record an RBI +200
Matt Olson remains one of Atlanta’s top run-producing threats; however, the betting market has taken a firm stance against him on Sunday night. While bettors are right to be concerned about the lefty’s approach versus the Phillies’ southpaw, there’s ample evidence to support that Olson continues his hot streak.
Olson has been unstoppable of late. The former Silver Slugger has hits in five straight games, totaling nine hits, four extra-base knocks, and four RBI over that stretch. Still, there’s Olson isn’t finished with his ascent. The Braves’ first baseman remains 29 points below his expected slugging percentage, implying further growth is anticipated in the short-term.
Further, there isn’t a substantive drop-off in his left-handed splits. Versus southpaws, Olson has put together a .431 slugging percentage, with 14 extra-base hits across 153 at-bats. Predictably, that correlates with sustained run production, with Olson compiling 22 RBI off of lefties.
Jesus Luzardo struggles with containing the long ball and isn’t immune to hard-hit contact. Consisering Olson’s current form and anticipated progression, we’ve keyed in on him as a premier value candidate to drive in a run.
Braves vs. Phillies: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks +1454
- Under 8.5 +102
- Hurston Waldrep to Record 5+ Strikeouts +142
- Matt Olson to Record an RBI +200
Runs may be hard to come by on Sunday, but we expect Matt Olson to be a factor. Parlaying the under, Hurston Waldrep to record five or more strikeouts, and Matt Olson to drive in a run, could net bettors +1454.
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