MLB · 1 month ago

Best MLB Pitcher Player Props for Today | Monday’s Best Bets and Picks (8/4)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Best MLB Pitcher Player Props for Today | Monday’s Best Bets and Picks (8/4)

We’re zeroing in on a plus-money and near-even MLB player prop with strong matchup edges for tonight’s slate. First up, Patrick Corbin is going up against a Yankees lineup that’s cooled off and remains vulnerable against left-handed pitching. Corbin’s steady form and strong home splits make him a prime candidate to work deep.

Then we turn to Citi Field, where Sean Manaea takes the ball for the Mets against a Guardians offense that’s one of the most strikeout-prone units versus southpaws. With Manaea’s elite K rate and Cleveland’s struggles, we’ve got a pair of high-confidence spots to target for Thursday night action.

Let’s go eat!

Where to Watch Yankees vs Rangers

Ballpark: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: RSN, YES
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+125) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: NYY -142 | TEX +120

Prop 1: Patrick Corbin Over 16.5 Outs -114

Patrick Corbin’s resurgence has been one of the more overlooked success stories for the Texas Rangers in 2025, and it sets up well for an Over 16.5 Outs play tonight against the New York Yankees. The veteran lefty enters with a 3.78 ERA — his best since his 2019 All-Star season — and has quietly been one of Texas’ most reliable arms. Over his last six starts, he’s gone at least five innings each time, allowing three runs or fewer in every outing, while piling up 28 strikeouts in 28.1 innings.

Corbin has already faced New York once this season, working five solid frames of three-run ball back in late May at Yankee Stadium. Now back at Globe Life Field — where he owns a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP — the matchup tilts further in his favor.

The Yankees’ recent offensive lull includes ranking 21st in OPS over the past 15 days (.695) and hitting just .220 in that span. More importantly for our outs prop, they rank 12th in MLB with 266 strikeouts in 1,009 at-bats vs. lefties this season and sixth overall in strikeouts per game (8.8), meaning Corbin should have a chance to pitch deep into this one and log some Ks. The former Washington National should also get some twin killings as the Yanks lead the AL and are second in baseball, grounding into 26 double plays against lefties this season.

With his steady form, home-field edge, and an opponent prone to swing-and-miss and hit into DPs, the path is clear for Corbin to get us 17+ outs tonight.

NYY vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: SNY, CLEG
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +150 | NYM -178

Bet 2: Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts +100

The Cleveland Guardians’ offense has been a strikeout-prone, low-impact unit all season, and it sets up perfectly for Sean Manaea to have over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. The Guardians have the worst overall xBA (.232), xSLG (.379), xwOBA (.300), and xwOBACON (.345) in baseball, while ranking last in hard-hit rate (36.1%) and second-to-last in barrel rate (6.9%) and average exit velocity (88.4 mph).

Against lefties, it gets even uglier — Cleveland is hitting just .227 (24th in MLB) with a .614 OPS (26th) and ranks third in strikeouts vs. LHP with 295 Ks in 1,108 at-bats. They’re also around the middle of the pack overall in punchouts, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per game.

Manaea, meanwhile, has been sharp since returning from an elbow injury for the New York Mets, allowing just one earned run in each of his first four appearances this season. The veteran southpaw has averaged 5.5 strikeouts per game in that span, fanning more than one batter per inning, and last season posted 5.75 Ks per game over 32 starts. With Cleveland’s whiff-heavy profile against lefties, the former Athletic should have every opportunity to rack up at least six strikeouts and cash this prop.

Adding to the case: Manaea’s bat-missing profile is elite right now — a 32.4% strikeout rate, which would rank third in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify, backed by a .216 xBA and 2.88 xERA. That combination of swing-and-miss and run suppression, paired with his steadily rising pitch count, points to efficient innings and multiple strikeout pockets. If he maintains his current pace (more than a K per inning) with 85–90 pitches of runway, 6+ Ks is squarely in play against this Guardians lineup.

CLE vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates