Best MLB Player Props for Today | Best Bets and Picks (7/24)
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
We’re back in the lab and eyeing another pair of juicy player props with value baked in. Let’s double dip on some plus-EV plays Thursday night with two plays that check every box. Manny Machado’s been driving in runs at a torrid clip and owns St. Louis starter Sonny Gray historically. Meanwhile, Eric Lauer has quietly turned into a strikeout machine for the surging Jays, racking up Ks in bunches and now facing a Tigers lineup that whiffs with the best of them.
Lauer’s set up to carve, and Machado’s in a premium RBI spot. Two sharp spots, one article.
Let’s ride the edge while it’s hot.
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Where to Watch Padres vs Cardinals
- Ballpark: Busch Stadium
- Location: St. Louis, Missouri
- Where to Watch: FDSMW, SDPA
- Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Spread: STL -1.5 (+140) | Total: 8.5
- Moneyline: SD +126 | STL -148
Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.
Manny Machado to Record an RBI +145
Manny Machado is in the midst of another stellar season for the San Diego Padres. The veteran infielder leads San Diego in virtually every offensive category. Machado is sporting a .285 batting average, 18 home runs, and 61 RBI to go along with an .830 OPS and .485 slugging percentage. The Baltimore Oriole former is on pace for his best RBI month of the year with 14 already in 18 games. Manny has been a better run producer away from home this season, with 34 of his ribeyes coming on the road.
Against tonight’s St. Louis Cardinals starter, Sonny Gray, Machado has had a world of success over the course of his career. The 33-year-old native of Miami is sporting a .344 career batting average against Gray, along with a .594 SLG, in 36 plate appearances. During that onslaught, Machado has gone yard twice, hit two doubles while putting up an xwOBA of 0.432.
Gray has not looked quite like himself recently, failing to go four innings in each of his past two starts. He was lit up in his last appearance, giving up 11 hits and eight earned runs to the Arizona Diamondbacks over just 3.1 innings.
I like Machado to be aggressive in the box tonight and get at least two bags for us. You may even want to check out his home run prop at +400, if you’re feeling a little extra froggy in the Lou.
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Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Tigers
- Ballpark: Rogers Centre
- Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Where to Watch: MLB Network, FDSDET, SNET
- Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Spread: DET -1.5 (+164) | Total: 8.5
- Moneyline: TOR +106 | DET -124
Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.
Eric Lauer 4.5 Strikeouts -148
Eric Lauer has been nothing short of a revelation for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. Signed to a one-year flyer with bullpen depth in mind, the former Milwaukee Brewer wasn’t even penciled into the rotation out of camp. Fast forward to late July, and he’s become the steadiest arm in the mix. The veteran southpaw has taken the ball nine times as a starter and hasn’t allowed more than three earned in a single outing. He’s dropped just one decision in his last 10 appearances and leads the Jays’ rotation with a sparkling 2.80 ERA and stingy 0.97 WHIP.
Lauer has also recorded 65 strikeouts in 61 innings, with at least six in each of his past three starts for a total of 20 over that span. The lefty is flashing an elite K rate of 27.1%, which puts him in the top 19% of all major league pitchers. His fastball run value score of nine lands him in MLB’s top nine percent, and his xERA (3.06) and xBA (.216) are in the top 17% of baseball.
While the Detroit Tigers have hit lefties well this season, they strike out an awful lot. Detroit sits fifth in baseball with 904 punchouts on the campaign and is around the middle of the pack in Ks against southpaws. They’ve also already struck out five times in just three innings facing Lauer this season.
Let the K train roll tonight at Comerica!
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