Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for July 3: High-Value Picks

Looking to go yard with your MLB picks? SportsGrid breaks down the top home run prop bets to help you swing for the fences!

Let’s dive into today’s best long ball candidates:

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change after the publication of this article.

1. SFG Rafael Devers (+340) @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Technically, Devers paces the San Francisco Giants in home runs with 17. Since being traded from the Boston Red Sox, he’s produced two homers with San Francisco.
• Devers — facing Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt — has launched a dozen baseballs over the fence versus RHP in 2025 (.543 SLG in the split).
• The Giants are facing the D-backs at Phoenix’s Chase Field, which currently yields a 104 Park Factor score, the third-highest in MLB, according to BaseballSavant.
• Pfaadt has surrendered an .856 OPS to LHB over 225 plate appearances this season (and .836 OPS lifetime).

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2. LAD Teoscar Hernandez (+330) vs. Chicago White Sox

• Despite having missed 17 games in 2025 due to injury, Hernandez is third on the Los Angeles Dodgers with 14 homers. 
• Hernandez will see White Sox RHP Aaron Civale. Throughout 12 career head-to-head at-bats between the two, Hernandez has already taken Civale deep once.
• This year, Hernandez has started 35 games at home and 34 on the road. Still, 64.3% of his home runs have come at Dodger Stadium.
• Between two teams, Civale has allowed 1.7 home runs per nine innings in 2025; that is tied for the worst clip of his seven-year career.

Also Consider: Cody Bellinger (+320) — one long ball/.920 OPS in nine career at-bats versus Toronto Blue Jays RHP Chris Bassitt. Additionally, Bellinger has homered twice in the past five contests.

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