Andrew Abbott Might Finally Be the Cincinnati Reds’ Ace — But Can You Bet on It?

A Breakout Three Years in the Making

It’s taken a couple of seasons, but Abbott is finally delivering on the sleeper hype that’s surrounded him since his 2022 debut. The Cincinnati Reds left-hander was electric in his latest outing — 5 strikeouts, just 1 walk, and a commanding performance against the Guardians. And unlike so many arms shackled by cautious modern managers, Abbott has the green light from Terry Francona to go deep when he’s dealing.

That trust is critical for a team like the Reds, whose rotation has thinned out with injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Abbott has stepped into the void, and it now looks like he might emerge as the guy for a Reds team still figuring out who it is.

Fantasy Perspective: From Streamer to Start-Weekly Status

Abbott was a borderline hold in many fantasy formats to start the year. Now? He’s approaching “must-start” territory in leagues of all sizes:

• ERA in June: 2.57

• WHIP: 1.05

• K/BB over last three starts: 17/3

• Allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts

While he still pitches half his games at Great American Ball Park (aka “Great American Small Park”), Abbott has learned to pitch to his environment — working low in the zone and inducing soft contact. That makes him a rare commodity: a fly-ball pitcher who’s learned to survive in a bandbox.

Caution Note:

The downside hasn’t disappeared. On days when the wind is blowing out, he’s still vulnerable to the sudden blow-up inning. Monitor weather reports carefully — especially for day games in Cincinnati.

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Betting Angle: Where’s the Value on Abbott and the Reds?

Despite Abbott’s ascension, oddsmakers haven’t quite adjusted, especially in his home starts, where the totals remain inflated due to park factors. That creates a small window of opportunity for bettors savvy enough to ride his current form.

1. Under First 5 Totals (Especially vs. Weak Lineups)

Books still hang first 5 innings totals at 4.5 or 5 when Abbott pitches at home. But with his improved control and willingness to challenge hitters early in counts, there’s sneaky value in the first-half under, especially against bottom-third offenses.

Target Plays:

• First 5 Under 4.5 (if weather is neutral)

• Reds ML in Abbott Starts vs. Non-Contenders

2. Reds as Live Underdogs

Because Cincinnati’s bullpen has stabilized and Abbott typically exits in the 6th or 7th with a lead, the Reds can be a sneaky live bet opportunity — especially if they fall behind early due to poor run support (a recurring issue).

Betting Tip: Look to bet Reds live ML after the 3rd inning if Abbott is cruising and the game is within one run.

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Are the Reds Contenders? Not Quite… But They’re Dangerous

While some bettors (and even Craig Mish himself) might be clinging to futures bets on the Reds to win the division or make the playoffs, reality has begun to set in. The roster is flawed. The lineup is inconsistent. And unless Elly De La Cruz ignites in the second half, the path to contention feels murky.

But that doesn’t mean the Reds aren’t dangerous on a game-to-game basis, especially when Abbott takes the mound. He’s now their most trustworthy arm — and maybe their best pitcher until 2026.

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Final Word: Abbott Is Hot, But Pick Your Spots

• ✅ Fantasy: Start Abbott until further notice, especially in home starts vs. sub-.500 teams.

• ✅ Betting: Target first 5 inning unders and Reds live ML in his starts.

• ⚠️ Futures: Hold your playoff tickets at your own risk — the division is getting away from them.

• Abbott is finally looking like the breakout fantasy and betting asset Reds fans have waited for. Just don’t ask him to do it all himself — this is still Cincinnati, after all.

 

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