The American League East has been one of MLB’s most competitive divisions for years, but this season it’s wide open—and surprisingly, the New York Yankees are not at the top of the standings. Still, oddsmakers have them priced as division favorites, with plus money available at some books. Is this just Yankees bias, or is there value hiding in plain sight?

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Yankees Futures Odds: Is Plus Money Still a Gift?

As of Sunday, FanDuel had the Yankees available at +115 to win the AL East, and that number continues to fluctuate. Despite being behind in the standings, New York remains a public favorite, thanks in large part to name value, a potent lineup, and an optimistic outlook for Gerrit Cole’s return.

But bettors should be cautious. The Yankees’ rotation is dangerously thin.

Yankees Rotation in Crisis: No Clarke Schmidt, Cole Uncertainty

The latest blow? Clarke Schmidt is now out for the season—and likely all of 2025—due to Tommy John surgery. This news compounds the pressure on Gerrit Cole, who is also working his way back from the same procedure. Recent comebacks from Tommy John haven’t gone well across the league:

• Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber — all struggling or sidelined.

Expecting Cole to return and carry this rotation by July or August might be unrealistic, and that’s important when assessing futures bets.

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Who Could the Yankees Add?

Names like Mitch Keller and Luis Severino have been floated, but Sonny Gray—despite his dominance this season—is unlikely to return to the Bronx after a rocky first stint. That leaves a thin trade market and a lot of pressure on Carlos Rodón, who’s shown flashes of brilliance but is inconsistent.

Bottom line: New York needs a third arm, and right now, they don’t have it.

What About the Blue Jays and Rays?

Toronto Blue Jays

Yes, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and Max Scherzer are in the rotation, but none have inspired long-term confidence. Gausman has been a yo-yo, Scherzer looks past his prime, and Bassett has been shaky at best.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have talent—Junior Caminero, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, and Shane Baz—but they refuse to make deadline moves. That’s been their downfall in the past, and likely will be again. While the Rays could be dangerous with just one big bat like Josh Naylor, they likely won’t pay the price to acquire one.

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AL East Futures Best Bet: Still the Yankees?

Despite glaring flaws, the Yankees remain the safest bet, especially at +115 or better. The division is weaker than usual, with the Orioles inconsistent, the Blue Jays underperforming, and the Rays unwilling to invest at the trade deadline.

As one expert put it: “The American League is so mediocre this year… sometimes the Yankees can’t get out of their own way, but they’re still favorites by default—and that’s a betting opportunity.”

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AL East Futures Best Bets:

• Yankees to Win AL East (+115 or better) – Value exists while books adjust to rotation injuries.

• Fade Rays in Futures Markets – No history of making meaningful deadline upgrades.

• Avoid Blue Jays – Starting rotation concerns and lack of offensive consistency.

• Watch Orioles Line Movement – If they fall behind and prices drift, consider a late-season value play.

Final Word: Bet the Yankees, But Monitor the Market

This AL East race may come down to which front office makes a move—and which ones stand still. The Yankees, even with injuries, offer betting value because no one else is seizing control. Keep an eye on trade deadline rumors and injury updates, but for now, betting the Yankees at plus money makes sense.

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