MLB · 3 months ago

AJ Smith Shawver of the Atlanta Braves

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

AJ Smith-Shawver’s Season Ends — Atlanta Braves Face Another Blow in a Bruised Campaign

The hits keep coming for the Braves — and not the good kind. Smith-Shawver, the 21-year-old fireballer and Rookie of the Year favorite over at FanDuel, is officially done for the season after suffering a significant elbow injury. Once hailed as a foundational piece of the Braves’ next-gen rotation, Smith-Shawver now becomes the latest casualty in a 2025 campaign riddled with setbacks.

For bettors, fantasy players, and Braves fans alike, this is a seismic shift — and another reminder that nothing comes easy, even for a franchise built on depth and star power.

A Brutal Loss for the Braves and the Rookie Market

Smith-Shawver opened the season by dealing darts and holding the pole position in NL Rookie of the Year odds. At his peak, he was listed at +180 on FanDuel, well ahead of challengers like Luisangel Acuña of the New York Mets, Drake Baldwin of the Braves and Agustin Ramirez of the Miami Marlins. His wipeout slider, mid-90s heater, and composure on the mound made him not only a rotation mainstay but a fantasy darling as well.

Fantasy Fallout: You Can’t Replace a Draft-Day Investment

Smith-Shawver’s ADP hovered around the 150–170 range in most formats, often taken as a rotation stabilizer in deeper leagues. His upside was baked in. Now? You’re holding a roster hole and little waiver help in shallow leagues.

Next man up in ATL: Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Allan Winans are internal options, but none offer close to Smith-Shawver’s ceiling.
Streaming Tip: Opponents facing Atlanta’s No. 5 starter might now be viable betting targets and DFS streamers. Expect some high-scoring affairs in those back-end matchups.

Braves’ Odds Shift Slightly — But Still Elite

Despite the loss of Smith-Shawver, the Braves remain a top-3 team in the World Series futures market, thanks in part to the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider.

Current odds (FanDuel):
- World Series: +750 (from +700 pre-injury)
- NL Pennant: +400
- NL East Title: -110, with Phillies hot on their heels

But here’s the reality: Matt Olson has aged faster than expected, Austin Riley has plateaued, and Michael Harris II hasn’t taken the leap. Add in the injury carousel (again), and this team is starting to feel like it’s running on reputation more than production.

Fantasy Snapshot: Name Value ≠ Production in 2025

Riley: Feels like a 27 HR, .270 BA guy. Drafted as a top-25 player, but giving you top-75 returns. Sell if you still can.
Olson: Power’s there in spurts, but his bat speed and approach are trending downward. Age decline feels real.
Ozzie Albies: Still has pop and speed, and he’s healthy — which might be the rarest trait on this roster.
Baldwin: A silver lining. Has taken over catching duties and quietly produced top-12 fantasy catcher value. Solid add in all formats.

Betting Angles Going Forward

Game Totals: With rotation depth compromised, Braves’ games may trend toward the Over, especially when bottom-of-rotation arms pitch. Look for totals under 9 as potential Over bets.
Player Props: With the offense needing to carry more weight, target RBI and total bases props for Acuña and Albies. Riley and Olson are currently underperforming their lines.

Play: Over 8.5 in Braves non-Strider starts

Prop: Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases

Final Word: The Braves Are Still Contenders — But Vulnerable

For the second straight year, the Braves enter June with more questions than answers. Can they stay healthy? Can the offense hit to its potential? And who fills the massive hole left by AJ Smith-Shawver?

From a betting perspective, Atlanta’s preseason shine is losing luster, and there’s room for smart plays against them, especially in mismatches at the back of the rotation. They’re still a contender — but not the powerhouse many bet on in March.

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