Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees Hot Start: Will He Hit 60+ Home Runs?

A Blazing Start Worth Betting On?

Judge is doing Aaron Judge things—only faster and louder in 2025. With an early-season pace that projects him beyond the century mark in home runs (which, let’s be real, won’t happen), the conversation around 60 has reignited with urgency. After all, we’ve seen this before: the slow burn into May, the pull-power surge into the summer, and then, boom—he nearly matches Roger Maris.

But this year? Judge didn’t wait for the weather to heat up. He’s already launching moonshots, many pulled with authority—an approach he typically reserves for midseason form. Yankee Stadium hasn’t even turned into its full summer launching pad yet, which only adds intrigue.

So here it is: Buy or sell—Aaron Judge will hit 60+ home runs in 2025?

The Buy Case: This Isn’t Just Hot, It’s Historic

• He’s Locked In Early
  
  Unlike 2024, where he was dragging in April and fans were booing him off the field, Judge is locked and loaded in 2025. And what’s key? He’s not just hitting the ball hard—he’s pulling for power. Opposite-field shots might look nice on a swing reel, but pull power = production, especially for a right-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium.

• Healthy, He’s a Threat Every Season
  
  This isn’t a guy chasing some unrepeatable outlier. He already hit 62 home runs in 2022. If healthy, there’s zero doubt he has the swing path, plate approach, and ballpark factors to do it again.

Betting Angle (Buy Side):

If you’re into futures, some sportsbooks have adjusted Judge’s season-long HR total to the 57.5–59.5 range. There’s early value in betting the over 54.5 HRs at plus-money, if you can find a book that hasn’t caught up. Prop bettors can also target home run leader odds, which opened preseason with Judge as the second-favorite behind Matt Olson.

The Sell Case: Betting on Reality, Not Hype

• Health Is Always the Risk
  
  You can’t forecast injuries, but you can bet they’ll happen. A single IL stint of two weeks takes a massive chunk out of Judge’s runway. And let’s be honest—history is not on his side here. He’s had toe issues, oblique concerns, and general wear-and-tear over the past three seasons.

• The Intentional Walk Parade Is Coming
  
  Managers are catching on. Why pitch to Judge when you can let Jazz Chisholm, Austin Wells or Paul Goldschmidt try and beat you instead? Teams like Milwaukee and Toronto have already shown they’re willing to walk him with no one out. If Judge keeps slugging at this pace, expect that trend to accelerate.

• The Number Is Just Too High
  
  Even if Judge stays healthy and gets pitches, 60 is still rarefied air. Only a handful of players in the modern era have touched it, and that includes steroid-era sluggers. Everything—from weather, to pitching matchups, to lineup health—has to align perfectly. That’s a parlay with long odds.

Betting Angle (Sell Side):

If you’re fading the 60 mark, look for sportsbooks offering “Will Judge hit 60+ HRs?” specials midseason. These tend to appear in June/July and can offer plus odds on the “No.” If his pace slows or he misses even 10 games, the under becomes extremely valuable. You might also find value in “Exact Home Run Total” ranges, like 51–55 at odds north of +400.

Verdict: Rooting for History, Betting on the Field

Emotionally? We all want the chase. Judge is one of the few sluggers who can make every at-bat a national event. A summer countdown to 60 is the kind of thing that cuts through even the NFL preseason noise.

But when you’re betting? You’re not wagering on vibes—you’re wagering on probability.

So here’s the call:

• Fantasy Take? Buy.

• Betting Take? Sell.

Chasing 60+ home runs requires near-perfection over six months. Judge has done it once. He could do it again. But if you’re putting money on it? Be cautious. The odds—and the injury bug—are always lurking.