5 Sub .500 MLB Teams With the Best Chances to Make the Playoffs
SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball
Host · Writer
1. Texas Rangers
Expectations were high for the Texas Rangers, but they’ve been let down by bats, not arms. Despite having the best rotation ERA (3.25) in MLB and a bullpen ERA of 3.39, the Rangers' offense is stuck at 26th in wRC+ (87) and 27th in OPS (.662).
Injuries to key hitters like Joc Pederson haven’t helped, but mainstays Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Josh Jung have all underperformed their career marks.
If Texas can get healthy and the offense clicks, their elite pitching and AL schedule could carry them back to October.
Thanks to Just Baseball for the stats, analysis and insights for this slideshow article.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Once pegged as an AL contender, the Baltimore Orioles have stumbled through injuries and pitching struggles, landing them last in the AL East at 37-48, seven games back of a wild-card spot.
But June showed a spark: they ranked fourth in MLB in wRC+ (112), 6th in OPS (.753), and notched an 18-12 record over their last 30 games — seventh-best in baseball.
While the rotation’s ERA since June is still high at 5.06, the bullpen has turned it around with MLB’s third-best FIP (3.42) over the same stretch. If Adley Rutschman returns healthy and Gunnar Henderson stays hot, the O’s might finally get back on track.
For all your MLB deep dives, check out our friends at Just Baseball.
4. Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals shocked the baseball world last season with an ALDS run, but they’ve slipped back to earth in 2025. Despite a stellar rotation — top 10 in ERA (3.49) and FIP (3.76) — the Royals’ offense ranks near the bottom: 27th in wRC+ (82) and 26th in OPS (.664).
Stars like Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia are doing damage, but the lineup needs more help. Sitting six games below .500 and 4.5 out of the wild card, KC’s pitching gives them hope — especially in a weaker AL.
3. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have been one of the NL’s biggest letdowns, eight games under .500 and 7.5 back of a playoff spot. Their wRC+ (95) and OPS (.697) rank just 23rd and 22nd league-wide — unthinkable for a club stacked with hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna.
Pitching hasn’t been the problem — but injuries have. With Chris Sale, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Spencer Schwellenbach all out, the staff has been patched together. The good news? Spencer Strider looks more like himself, and Acuña is heating up. If the bats wake up, the Braves have the star power to make a run.
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2. Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have been a rollercoaster. They’re just a half-game above KC at 40-45 but flashed their ceiling with a 13-game win streak in May. Their hot month saw a 3.11 ERA (4th-best in MLB) and an AL-best bullpen.
Then came June’s meltdown: an MLB-worst 6.00+ ERA. Even so, their offense ranked 7th in wRC+ (107) in June. If Minnesota finds another hot streak, they’re dangerous enough to chase down a wild-card spot in the AL.
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1. Texas Rangers
Expectations were high for the Texas Rangers, but they’ve been let down by bats, not arms. Despite having the best rotation ERA (3.25) in MLB and a bullpen ERA of 3.39, the Rangers' offense is stuck at 26th in wRC+ (87) and 27th in OPS (.662).
Injuries to key hitters like Joc Pederson haven’t helped, but mainstays Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Josh Jung have all underperformed their career marks.
If Texas can get healthy and the offense clicks, their elite pitching and AL schedule could carry them back to October.
Thanks to Just Baseball for the stats, analysis and insights for this slideshow article.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Once pegged as an AL contender, the Baltimore Orioles have stumbled through injuries and pitching struggles, landing them last in the AL East at 37-48, seven games back of a wild-card spot.
But June showed a spark: they ranked fourth in MLB in wRC+ (112), 6th in OPS (.753), and notched an 18-12 record over their last 30 games — seventh-best in baseball.
While the rotation’s ERA since June is still high at 5.06, the bullpen has turned it around with MLB’s third-best FIP (3.42) over the same stretch. If Adley Rutschman returns healthy and Gunnar Henderson stays hot, the O’s might finally get back on track.
For all your MLB deep dives, check out our friends at Just Baseball.
