2025 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Trends: Highest Ticket and Handle

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby arrives tonight under the lights of Truist Park in Atlanta, featuring eight of baseball’s biggest sluggers. With massive power on display and a bracketed format that encourages fireworks, sportsbooks like BetMGM are seeing heavy betting activity ahead of the first swing. From shifting odds to betting splits and liability exposure, here’s a comprehensive look at where the action is going and who bettors are backing.

Line Movement: Odds Tightening at the Top

(Open to Current)

• Cal Raleigh +360 to +275
• James Wood +550 to +400
• Brent Rooker +1200 to +850
• Byron Buxton +850 to +900

Significant movement has already occurred in the Home Run Derby futures market. Cal Raleigh opened at +360 and has shortened to +275 as bettors continue to back the Seattle Mariners’ catcher, who enters with a league-leading 38 home runs. James Wood has also seen his odds tighten, moving from +550 to +400 following a strong surge in tickets and handle. One of the most dramatic shifts belongs to Brent Rooker, who opened at +1200 and is now +850, placing him in the mid-tier of the field. On the flip side, Byron Buxton has moved slightly from +850 to +900, reflecting a dip in confidence from both public and sharp bettors.

Highest Ticket Percentage: Wood, Raleigh, Cruz Draw Public Interest

Highest Ticket%

• James Wood 18.0%
• Cal Raleigh 17.0%
• Oneil Cruz 14.2%

The three most popular bets by ticket count are James Wood (18.0%), Cal Raleigh (17.0%), and Oneil Cruz (14.2%). All three are known for their explosive power, and Wood in particular has become a fan-favorite bet after launching 24 home runs in a breakout season for the Nationals. Cruz, despite hitting 16 home runs on the year, remains a trendy pick due to his exit velocity and long-ball potential. Raleigh’s popularity reflects both his stat line and his reputation for elevating in big moments.

Highest Handle Percentage: Big Money Riding on Cal Raleigh

Highest Handle%

• Cal Raleigh 30.3%
• James Wood 19.2%
• Oneil Cruz 14.5%

While the ticket count indicates who the public is backing, the handle percentage reveals where the largest wagers are being placed. Cal Raleigh leads with 30.3% of all money wagered, nearly doubling James Wood (19.2%), who sits in second place. Oneil Cruz again rounds out the top three with 14.5%. This suggests that not only are these players drawing the most bets—they’re also commanding the most confidence from high-stakes bettors. With his powerful left-handed swing and HR Derby-friendly approach, Raleigh has emerged as the clear favorite in both market perception and financial backing.

Sportsbook Liabilities: Who the Books Fear Most

Biggest Liability

• Cal Raleigh (SEA)
• James Wood (WAS)
• Oneil Cruz (PIT)

With the bulk of wagers and dollars stacked behind them, Cal Raleigh, James Wood, and Oneil Cruz have become the biggest liabilities for BetMGM. A win by any of the three would result in substantial payouts, putting pressure on the book if one of them emerges victorious. Each of these players combines power with popularity, making them high-risk outcomes for oddsmakers.

Participant Snapshot: 2025 Home Run Totals

Here’s a quick look at this year’s field and their 2025 home run totals heading into the event:

Raleigh enters as the top slugger in the group by raw numbers, but each hitter brings a compelling mix of power and upside. Junior Caminero and Wood provide emerging star power, while Buxton, Rooker, and Matt Olson offer veteran thump. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cruz round out a competitive field that’s as unpredictable as it is powerful.

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As first pitch nears, betting momentum clearly favors Cal Raleigh and James Wood, with Oneil Cruz also drawing considerable attention from both public and sharp bettors. With multiple betting angles available—from outright winners to longest home run props and swing-specific wagers—there are countless ways to engage with this year’s Derby.

Backed by rising handle, significant odds movement, and a field stacked with power, the 2025 Home Run Derby is shaping up to be both a betting spectacle and one of the most electric nights of the MLB season.