UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A lightweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 272 as No. 10-ranked Renato “Money" Moicano takes on unranked Chris “The Problem" Duncan.
- Arena: Meta Apex
- Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
- Date: April 4, 2026
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Unranked light heavyweights Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev and Brendson Ribeiro will take the cage against each other. Yakhyaev is undefeated at 8-0 and won his UFC fight in November against Raffael Cerqueira by submission. Ribeiro is riding a two-fight losing skid and was knocked out in his last outing.
Ribeiro is one inch taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Due to a very short average fight time, Yakhyaev drops opponents an insane average of 28.57 per 15 minutes. It also skews his landed significant strike statistics, sitting at 20.95 landed per minute. He also has a 14.29 takedown average and perfect takedown accuracy and defense.
The odds tell the story here, Yakhyaev is a -2000 to win. Needless to say, he’s a heavy favorite to win.
💰 Best Bet: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by KO/TKO (-110)
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
No. 3-ranked women’s strawweight Virna Jandiroba takes on No.7-ranked Tabatha Ricci. Jandiroba is coming off a loss, but had a fight win streak before that. Ricci is 7-2 over her last nine, beating Amanda Ribas her last time out.
Jandiroba is two inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Neither possesses knockout power, but Ricci lands 1.85 more significant strikes per minute. However, she also absorbs an additional 2.29. Their takedown statistics are strikingly similar, but Jandiroba has a higher submission rate of 1.52 per 15 minutes.
The odds are close, and Jandiroba is six years older at 37, but if she lands in the top position on the ground, she should be able to control the fight handily.
💰 Best Bet: Virna Jandiroba by Points (+150)
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
- Odds to Win: Moicano +146 | Duncan -160
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -115 | Submission +200 | Decision +300
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +310 | No -460
The main event features Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan locking horns. Moicano has lost two straight, but is 4-2 over his last six. Duncan is riding a four-fight win streak, beating Terrance McKinney by submission his last time out.
Moicano is one inch taller and has a half-inch reach advantage. Duncan has the power edge, dropping opponents 0.48 more times per 15 minutes. Both are active strikers, Moicano landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute, while Duncan also lands 5.02. Duncan absorbs slightly more at 4.82 than Moicano’s 3.57. Duncan should have the grappling edge, finishing 1.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes.
This fight could be exciting. On paper, it features two fighters willing to stand their ground and throw hands. However, I lean toward Duncan for his slightly elevated volume and ability to finish his takedowns.
💰 Best Bet: Chris Duncan to win (-180)
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