UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets

A UFC championship fight headlines UFC 317 as Ilia Topuria relinquished his featherweight title to move up and face former champion and No. 2-ranked Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight belt.

• Arena: T-Mobile Arena
• Location: Paradise, Nevada, United States
• Where to Watch: PPV
• Date: June 26, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET

UFC 317: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

No. 1-ranked flyweight Brandon Royval faces No. 12-ranked Joshua Van for potentially the next shot at the title. Royval is on a two-fight win streak, beating Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira in two straight split decisions. Van steps in to face Royval on less than three weeks’ notice, riding a four-fight win streak.

Royval is four inches taller, and he has a three-inch reach advantage. Van has a slight power edge and lands 3.74 more significant strikes per minute. However, Royval absorbs 2.2 fewer. Van will also have a grappling advantage, landing 0.21 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and an 81 percent takedown percentage. Royval will have a submission edge, with 1.25 subs per 15 minutes.

Van has been touted as the next big thing in the flyweight division, but Royval might be too much of a step up for the 23-year-old. Still, this looks like the fight where Van arrives.

💰 Best Bet: Van to win -130

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UFC 317: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Kai Kara-France

The UFC flyweight title will be on the line when Alexandre Pantoja defends against No. 4-ranked Kai Kara-France. Pantoja is on a seven-fight win streak, with three straight title defenses. Kara-France won his last time out, but lost the two fights before that.

Pantoja is one inch taller, but Kara-France has a two-inch reach advantage. Kara-France will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.51 more times per 15 minutes. Both men land and absorb about the same number of significant strikes per minute. However, Pantoja will have a significant grappling advantage. He scores 2.13 more takedowns and 0.89 submissions per 15 minutes.

Kara-France will be able to keep up with Pantoja in the early going, but I don’t think he has the stuff to overcome him.

💰 Best Bet: Pantoja by Submission or Points -165

UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

• Odds to Win: Topuria -500 | Oliveira +340
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -230 | Submission +310 | Decision +550
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +570 | No -1000

Ilia Topuria defended his UFC featherweight title once and decided it was time to move up in weight and face Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight belt. Topuria is undefeated at 16-0, knocking out Max Holloway in his last fight. Oliveira is 2-2 over his last four, losing to Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev.

Oliveira is three inches taller and will have a five-inch reach advantage. Topuria was a power puncher at featherweight, dropping opponents 1.1 times per 15 minutes. Still, we’ll have to see how that translates at 155-lbs. Topuria lands 1.29 more significant strikes per minute, but also absorbs 0.63 more. Oliveira averages 0.23 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Topuria has an impressive 92 percent takedown defense rate. However, Oliveira averages 2.66 submissions per 15 minutes.

My heart says Oliveira, but my head says Topuria. I think Topuria will be just too fast for Oliveira at this stage of his career. That being said, Oliveira can still finish anyone.

💰 Best Bet: Topuria by KO/TKO -165

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