UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Men’s Bantamweight Title fight headlines UFC 316 as former champion and No. 1 contender Sean O’Malley challenges champion Merab Dvalishvili.
- Arena: Prudential Center
- Location: Newark, New Jersey
- Where to Watch: PPV
- Date: June 7, 2025
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer
Unranked middleweights Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer will face off on Saturday. Gastelum is 5-7 over his previous 12 fights, losing six of nine middleweight matches. Pyfer is 1-1 over his last two but 6-1 across his previous seven, with five knockouts.
Pyfer is five inches taller and has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. He is also twice as likely to knock down his opponent, averaging 0.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Both fighters land and absorb significant strikes at essentially the same rate. They also have similar wrestling statistics, with Pyfer having a slight edge in submissions.
Pyfer’s size and power will be the most significant differences in this fight. I think Pyfer becomes the first one to knock Gastelum out at +280.
💰 Best Bet: Pyfer by KO/TKO at +280
FANDUEL PROMO CODE – GET $300 IN BONUS BETS
UFC 316: Julianna Peña (c) vs. Kayla Harrison
The co-main event will feature women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Peña defending her title against No. 2-ranked Kayla Harrison. Peña is 3-1 over her last four, winning a split decision against Raquel Pennington in her previous time out. Harrison is 18-1 over her MMA career and America’s all-time best women’s judoka.
Harrison is two inches taller, but Peña has a three-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter is a great striker, but Harrison has a statistical edge, landing 1.62 more and absorbing 1.34 fewer significant strikes per minute. The most important difference will be in the grappling. Despite being a strength of Peña’s, Harrison is on another level. Expect the two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo to ragdoll the champion.
💰 Best Bet: Harrison by KO/TKO or Submission at -160
UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O’Malley
- Odds to Win: Dvalishvili -295 | O’Malley +220
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +290 | Submission +850 | Decision -270
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -260 | No +192
Merab Dvalishvili defeated Sean O’Malley to win the bantamweight title only five months ago, but they’ll meet once again on Saturday. Dvalishvili is riding a 12-fight win streak, all in the UFC. Before losing to Merab, O’Malley was on a three-fight win streak, including a knockout of former champion Aljamain Sterling.
O’Malley is five inches taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. He has significantly more power, knocking down opponents 0.77 times per 15 minutes. O’Malley is more active on the feet, landing 6.70 strikes per minute, but he absorbs 0.97 more. The grappling is the complete opposite. Dvalishvili averages 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes, but they are similar in submission attempts. One significant advantage for Dvalishvili is his endurance, which enables him to keep a torrid pace through all five rounds.
Merab outpaced O’Malley in the first fight, despite Suga winning the fifth. This one most likely ends the same way, with a Dvalishvili decision.
💰 Best Bet: Dvalishvili by Points -150
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
