2025 BMW Championship Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Course Outlook

The BMW Championship heads to Caves Valley Golf Club this week, and we’re targeting three players whose games fit this demanding FedEx Cup Playoffs test. Caves Valley rewards precise approach play, sharp putting, and elite Par 4 scoring — a perfect recipe for Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy. Cantlay has owned this tournament, Schauffele is trending into form with his iron game locked in, and McIlroy is riding peak driving and putting numbers.

With elite fields and small margins, finding value matters — and these three plays, each with strong course history and statistical backing, check every box for contention.

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Caves Valley Golf Club Course Outlook for The BMW Championship

Caves Valley, Tom Fazio’s undulating gem outside Baltimore, delivers a classic championship test this week. At over 7,200 yards (par 71), the layout blends wide corridors with tree-lined holes, punishing errant tee shots while rewarding precision. Fast bentgrass greens are firm and subtle, demanding pinpoint iron play—especially on long par 3s and undulating bunkered approaches. Water hazards and strategically placed fairway bunkers add intrigue, particularly on holes like the uphill-finishing ninth (played 18th here).

Altogether, it’s a fair but unforgiving setup that separates great approach players from the rest of the FedEx Cup field.

Patrick Cantlay Top-5 Finish +340

Patrick Cantlay’s history at the BMW Championship is almost automatic. He won at Caves Valley in 2021, then successfully defended the title in 2022, making him one of the few players to go back-to-back in a FedEx Cup Playoffs event. Add in four career top-10s and seven top-25s at this tournament, and it’s clear he knows how to peak for this stop on the schedule.

This season, Cantlay has quietly put together another consistent campaign — 14 made cuts in 17 starts, four top-10 finishes, and nine top-25s, including top-five results at the American Express and the Truist. He’s coming in with his game in shape and a course that fits him like a glove.

The numbers tell the story. He ranks eighth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.665), giving him the kind of precision iron play Caves Valley demands. While he sits 85th in driving accuracy (59.86%), his elite greens-in-regulation mark of 70.61% (11th) shows how often he recovers and still gives himself birdie looks. On the greens, he’s 36th in putting average (1.739), capable of getting hot at the right time.

Where Cantlay really separates himself this week is on the Par 4s — he’s second on Tour in Par 4 scoring average at 3.95, and with Caves Valley featuring 12 of them, that skill set becomes a massive edge. Combine his history, his current form, and his statistical profile, and +340 for a top-five finish feels like one of the best values on the board.

Xander Schauffele Win Only +1800

Xander Schauffele brings enough pop off the tee at 312.2 yards (28th on Tour), but it’s his iron game that makes him a live threat to take the BMW. He ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.656) and is 35th on Tour in approach shots from 200+ yards — a key range for Caves Valley Golf Club, where mid-to-long irons decide scoring chances. He’s hitting greens in regulation at a 68.7% clip (73rd), giving himself birdie looks all week.

Xander has had plenty of success at the BMW with three straight T-8 or better finishes coming into Thursday. Overall, Schauffele has seven top 25s and four top tens in this tournament and has consistently shown he has the pedigree to compete here.

On the year, Schauffele has been much better in the second half after an intercostal strain cost him the first two months of the season. The San Diego State alum has finished T-12 or better in three of his past five tournaments, made every cut this year, and has landed in the top 25 nine times in 2025.

Schauffele’s ability to control trajectory and distance into tough greens makes him a perfect fit to lift the trophy.

Rory McIlroy Top European +210

Instead of chasing Rory McIlroy’s Top five finish at +135, we’re taking the better value with his Top European prop at +210. That price comes with a narrower field — his main competition being Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Åberg — and avoids the world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler entirely. Compared to the UK+Ireland market (+150), the Top Euro bet gives us more punch for a better price.

McIlroy’s form is peaking at the right time. He’s second on Tour in driving distance (323.4 yards), third in strokes gained off the tee (+0.632), and top-70 in SG: Approach despite a midseason lull. His long-iron game from 200+ yards (62nd) is dialed in, and his putter has been a legitimate weapon — seventh in putting average (1.719), fourth in SG: Putting (+0.754), and ninth in one-putt percentage (43.3%).

The results match the profile: runner-up at this year’s Scottish Open (-13), one of his eight T-10 or better finishes, which includes wins at Pebble Beach, the Players, and the Masters in 2025. Rory has 10 top-25s, seven top-10s, and five top fives at the BMW, including a win here in 2012.

When Rory is striking it this well and with this betting value, you don’t overthink it. This is the play.