2025 TOUR Championship Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Course Outlook

The FedEx Cup season comes to a close at East Lake Golf Club, where the Tour Championship crowns its champion. This historic Atlanta track demands precision over power, with only two par-5s on the card and twelve pivotal par-4s. Ball-strikers who control their approaches and handle fast Bermudagrass greens are best positioned to thrive.

With course history, current form, and statistical profiles all in play, we’ve lined up three best bets that bring real value to the finale.

Let’s hit the dancefloor to finish off the PGA campaign.

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East Lake Golf Club Course Outlook for TOUR Championship

East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta hosts the season’s swan song, a historic par-70 track stretching just over 7,300 yards. Host of the Tour Championship since 2004, East Lake isn’t a course you can overpower — it demands patience, precision, and strategy from start to finish. With just two par-5s on the card, players can’t rely on piling up birdies through brute length alone. Instead, the layout rewards those who keep the ball in play off the tee and dial in their irons to tight targets.

Bermudagrass greens add another layer of difficulty, running fast and punishing sloppy lag putting. Scrambling is often critical, as missed approaches can lead to tricky up-and-downs around tightly mown surrounds. Historically, ball-strikers who control their trajectories and thrive in mid-iron scoring ranges gain the biggest edge here. Distance helps, but accuracy and consistency tend to separate the contenders from the pack.

Simply put, East Lake is a course that exposes weaknesses. Elite drivers who also rank well in strokes gained: approach and putt confidently on Bermuda have the clearest path to taking home the FedEx Cup.

Rory McIlroy Top European +240

Instead of going for Rory McIlroy’s Top Five finish at +115, the sharper angle is backing him as Top European at +240. The price is also stronger than the UK+Ireland market (+160) and the field is narrower, with his primary challengers being Ludvig Åberg (+450), Viktor Hovland (+750), and Tommy Fleetwood (+400) — notably avoiding Scottie Scheffler altogether.

Few players in this event know East Lake better than McIlroy. He’s teed it up here 11 times, finishing inside the top 10 on nine occasions with three wins (2016, 2019, 2022) and a runner-up in 2014. That track record is no accident — Rory’s all-around profile fits this par-70 perfectly. He ranks 17th on Tour in Par-4 scoring (3.98), second in driving distance (323.9), and third in strokes gained off the tee (+0.654). His putter has also been a major asset, sitting top-10 in both SG: Putting (0.786) and one-putt percentage (43.52%).

The recent form matches the course history: multiple wins this season, eight top-10s, and his ball-striking trending upward heading into Atlanta. Given his comfort level at East Lake and the value at this number, McIlroy as the Top European is the smarter play.

Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish +105

Patrick Cantlay barely squeaked into East Lake with a T-30 at last week’s BMW, but don’t let that fool you — this course has been his playground. The 33-year-old has finished T-7 or better in three of his past four TOUR Championship starts, highlighted by his 2021 victory when he went 11-under to claim the FedEx Cup. Few players in this field carry that kind of consistent success at East Lake.

His 2025 campaign has once again been steady, if not spectacular: 15 cuts made in 18 events, nine top-25s, and four top-10s, including top-five showings at the American Express and Truist. The foundation of that consistency lies in his iron play, ranking 15th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.559) and 20th in greens-in-regulation (69.87%). Even when the driver wobbles (92nd in accuracy), he finds ways to create scoring chances for himself.

What sets Cantlay apart this week is his dominance on Par 4s, ranking second on Tour with a 3.95 average. At a par-70 East Lake loaded with pivotal fours, that edge can’t be overstated. Add his course history, steady form, and statistical profile, and a top-10 finish at plus money feels like strong value.

Russell Henley Win Only +2000

While I think this tournament comes down to Rory (+850) and Scottie Scheffler, taking either does not have any value. Scottie, especially at +150, is insane, even though I like him to win it. That said, barely getting plus money on a golf tournament seems crazy to me. If anything, you are better off hoping either falls behind on Thursday, and you can get a respectable live bet price. For our better-than-respectable price, I like Russ Henley.

Henley profiles well for a course like East Lake, as the former Georgia Bulldog has been a wizard with his irons this season. Henley sits 14th on Tour in SG: Approach to Green (0.564), while hitting greens in regulation at a 68.84% clip, which puts him 35th among all golfers. When it comes to nailing that approach near the whole, no one is better, as Henley leads the Tour in proximity (33′ 8). His ability to play irons from distance is impressive as well, ranking 30th in approach from 200 yards or further. Like our other selections, Henley has been a wizard on shorter holes, landing eighth in the PGA with an average score of 3.97 Par 4s. I keep harping on that stat because East Lake has 12 of them.

Honky Tonk Henley, as I call him, knows these Par 4s in Atlanta quite well. The 36-year-old put on a clinic last year here, finishing fourth after a masterful 62 on the final day. It wasn’t his first time, slaying East Lake either, as Henley also finished six under here in 2023 and has a third-place showing from back in 2017.

On the season, the native of Macon has been very solid, sitting seventh in FedEx points. He got there on the strength of 11 top 25s, nine top 10s, and a win at the Arnold Palmer. Coming into this weekend, Henley has finished no worse than T-17 in his past six tournaments, which includes a T-5 showing at the Memorial and a runner-up finish at the Travelers.

I like Honky Tonk to shake, rattle, and roll all weekend and be in the mix, and at +2000, the price is music to my ears.