2025 St. Jude Championship Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Course Outlook

The FedEx St. Jude Championship marks the start of the PGA Tour Playoffs, and TPC Southwind is primed to separate contenders from pretenders. With water hazards lurking on more than half the holes, narrow landing areas, and small Bermuda greens, Southwind demands elite ball-striking, nerves, and course management.

We’ve dialed up three sharp plays: a proven winner with deep course history, a playoff-tested ball-striker in peak form, and a Canadian standout poised to top his countrymen. 

Let’s kick of golf’s postseason in style by cashing some plus-money plays.

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TPC Soutwind Course Outlook

TPC Southwind offers one of the sharpest tests on the PGA Tour, and it’s tailor-made for ball-strikers who thrive under playoff pressure. Its Ron Prichard–designed championship layout—with Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller consulting—opened in 1988 and measures approximately 7,244–7,288 yards as a par 70.

Water comes into play on 11 of 18 holes—lakes, streams and ponds keep players honest—and sand lurks in 94 bunkers strategically placed around small Champion Bermuda greens (~4,300 sq ft). The signature 14th plays a daunting +0.196 strokes over par, elevated and requiring a full carry over water onto a heavily contoured green.

This spring, the course completed a full conversion of all fairways to Zeon Zoysiagrass, offering ultra-consistent lies and improved drainage thanks to re-contoured turf and subsurface work—after summer downpours had previously challenged conditioning.

Expect accuracy off the tee and precision approach play to be rewarded—this is not a bomber’s course. Narrow fairways (~29 yards wide) and small target greens elevate GIR importance, and past winners like Zalatoris, Glover and Matsuyama have excelled in strokes gained: approach and putting to close things out fast.

If players can avoid the water and hit greens in regulation, they can set up aggressive birdie chances—making positional course management and short-game finesse the name of the game at Southwind.

Xander Schauffele Win Only +1600

I’m increasingly confident in Xander Schauffele this week at TPC Southwind—especially at a standout number like +1600. He came within strokes of taking down the title last year here, with a bogey-free 63 on Sunday, finishing tied for second at –15, just two shots behind the champion. That shows he’s not just comfortable but dangerous here.

Schauffele’s game aligns perfectly with TPC Southwind’s demands. The par‑70 layout rewards precision over brute power—helmed by narrow fairways, Champion Bermuda greens, and water dangerously in play on over half the holes. Accuracy off the tee and solid iron play are table stakes here. Something Schauffele delivers in spades.

This season, Schauffele remains among the Tour’s elite. He ranks well inside the top 10 in strokes gained: total and putting, while regularly hitting at least two-thirds of greens and averaging over 300 yards off the tee. That efficiency positions him to exploit the short par‑70 format—where birdie chances are critical and mistakes costly.

Beyond skills, there’s proven comfort here. He’s posted two top-10s at the St. Jude Championship and nearly outdueled Hideki Matsuyama last year, even after earlier struggles on this property. At +1600, that’s untapped upside. With elite metrics and course history firmly in his favor, Schauffele is a smart swing as a tournament winner this week.

Sam Burns Top 20 Finish (Including Ties) +105

Sam Burns is a name you need on your card this week—especially for a Top 20 ticket. He’s proven time and again that TPC Southwind fits his game like a glove, and his profile screams consistency with upside in a playoff-style setup.

Burns has flashed here before, finishing runner-up in 2021 after a playoff loss and locking in a T5 finish last year despite a rocky third round. He also has a top 20 finish under his belt from 2022 at Southwind. It’s not just familiarity for Burns—it’s proof he can contend when the pressure’s up. His ball-striking travels, and his short game on these Champion Bermuda greens is elite.

Statistically, Burns is the full package. He’s among the Tour’s leaders in Strokes Gained: Putting, averages over 307 yards off the tee, and hits nearly 70% of greens in regulation. That combo plays perfectly on a layout where water’s lurking on over half the holes and narrow fairways demand both precision and nerve.

Burns isn’t just comfortable here—he’s dangerous. He’s got the confidence, past success, and scoring profile to make a serious run at another strong finish. At the current Top 20 price, there’s real value in backing him to be in the mix come Sunday.

Corey Conners Top Canadian +140

Corey Conners is a savvy value pick to emerge as the Top Canadian at the St. Jude Championship, and +140 feels like strong upside given the field. Conners finished T6 here in 2023, closing with rounds of 67‑72‑65‑65 to post 11‑under par, putting him solidly in the mix at TPC Southwind.

This season he’s been remarkably consistent — notching six top-10 finishes and making the cut in 17 of 18 starts, ranking near the top in Strokes Gained: Total (18th on Tour) and Off the Tee (15th). His average driving distance sits just under 300 yards, but it’s his accuracy with the big dog out of the teebox that’s even more impressive. The talented Canadian ranks 17th in driving accuracy, hitting nearly 67% of fairways. He also hits his irons and putts with enough precision to stay in contention.

Southwind’s tight corridors and scoring holes suit Conners’ strengths: straight-off-the-tee ball-striking and dependable mid‑iron play. He picks up strokes around the green (56th in SG: Approach to Green) and on the putting surfaces (44th in SG: Putting) at a rate that often leaves fellow Canadian contenders trailing him. Against the likes of Taylor Pendrith (+280), Mackenzie Hughes (+450), and Nick Taylor (+260), Conners’ experience in Memphis, where he’s played in eight tournaments at Southwind, and robust form arc make him the standout.

At +140, he’s the kind of pick you get down early — reliable, battle-tested, and equipped to be the top Canadian at this stage of FedExCup playoffs.