2025 3M Open Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Course Outlook

We’re heading to TPC Twin Cities with a bankroll mindset and a card loaded with value. The 3M Open may not have the flashiest field of the summer, but that just means sharper edges for bettors willing to dig. From red-hot sleepers with proven course history to first-round fireworks and steady vets built for this layout, our best bets are locked and loaded. We’ve got a past champ hunting for another deep run, a putting savant who could blitz Thursday, and a rising name ready to finally close the deal.

Let’s cash tickets in Blaine—starting Thursday morning.

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TPC Twin Cities Course Outlook

TPC Twin Cities is a birdie playground—plain and simple. Par 71, 7,431 yards, and if you’re not going low, you’re not sniffing Sunday contention. This is a course that rewards aggressive tee shots, dialed-in wedges, and a putter that stays hot for four straight days.

Water comes into play on over half the holes, but that’s more visual noise than true danger for bombers and confident iron players. Guys who can carry 300+ off the tee and wedge it close are going to eat. You’ll see eagles. You’ll see 62s. This track turns into a putting contest if your ball-striking holds up.

Winning scores here flirt with -20 every year, and it’s no coincidence the leaderboard usually features aggressive risers, not grinders. There’s no faking it around Twin Cities—if your game’s on, it’ll show. If it’s not, you’re packing up Friday.

We’re targeting ball-strikers who can cash with the flatstick and aren’t afraid to chase pins. That’s the blueprint for winning here, and the guys we’re backing fit it to a tee.

Max Greyserman Win Only +2800

We’re chasing value here with Max Greyserman, and the number screams buy. +2800 on a guy who nearly won this thing last year? Yes, please. Greyserman went scorched earth on TPC Twin Cities in 2024, finishing one shot off the win after firing an eight-under on Sunday. He’s already proven he can go low here—and now he returns with even more confidence and momentum.

Greyserman’s 2025 season has been quietly elite. He’s posted nine top-25 finishes, cracked the top 10 twice, and came heartbreakingly close at the Rocket Mortgage, losing in a playoff. This isn’t a longshot dart. This is a dude knocking on the door.

His putter’s been the moneymaker. Greyserman ranks 28th in Strokes Gained: Putting (+0.333), 22nd in putting average (1.731), and 60th in one-putt percentage (40.59%). He’s consistent, confident, and deadly inside 10 feet. Add in 308.3 yards off the tee (42nd in driving distance), and he’s built for a birdie-fest like this one.

Don’t wait for the number to drop—Max is live to win this outright in a very average field of golfers in Minnesota.

Sam Burns 1st Round Leader +3500

We’re opening the tournament with heat—Sam Burns at +3500 to lead after Round 1 is the type of bet you don’t leave off your card. He’s the outright favorite to win the 3M Open, but there’s serious value in catching him early before the field settles in. Burns has made a living torching opening rounds, and this number is flat-out disrespectful for a guy who’s been dialed on Thursdays all season.

Burns has carded seven opening rounds of 68 or better this year, including a 65 at the Truist—his personal best start of the season. At the 2019 3M Open, he opened with a 66 and went on to finish T-7 after going 16-under. That’s not a fluke—he’s made the cut in all three appearances at TPC Twin Cities and landed inside the top 12 twice. The track fits him, and he’s coming in fresh off an 18-under runner-up at the Canadian Open that included an electric -8 final round, last month.

Statistically, Burns is a menace. He’s first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting (+0.950), eighth in putting average (1.723), and top-20 in putts per round. Combine that with 307 yards off the tee and 68.37% GIR, and you’ve got a guy who can score in bunches.

If Sam Burns gets rolling early—and history says he will—this ticket could cash before happy hour on Thursday.

Tony Finau Top 10 Finish +340

Sometimes the board gives you a price that just feels off—and Tony Finau at +340 for a Top 10? Yeah, we’re biting. This is a proven horse-for-course play. Finau has never missed a cut at the 3M Open, going 6-for-6 with four finishes inside the top 12. Oh yeah—he also won the thing in 2022. If there’s a track where Tony shows up, it’s Twin Cities.

His 2025 hasn’t been flashy, but the consistency is still there: five top 25s, a top 10, and a trio of finishes just outside at 13th and 15th. He’s been knocking. This is the week he kicks in the door.

Finau’s approach game has held steady—87th in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.079)—and his length off the tee still plays, averaging 304.4 yards (75th). But it’s his putting that’s been sneaky clutch. When Tony hits the dance floor, he likes to end the night early, sitting 70th in one-putt percentage, nailing 40.26% of those bad boys. When he’s rolling, he can pick up birdies in bunches.

This isn’t a ceiling play—it’s a trust play. Experience, comfort, and proven results on this track. Top 10 at +340 feels more like a floor than a stretch. Hammer it.